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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
January 17, 2017
The U.S. stock market: uncertainty for the short term, but the benefit of the doubt belongs to the bullish major trend.
Preview from my weekly report*
Technical indicators have been moving sideways over the short-term, for 5 weeks, giving rise to some concerns as well as widely-diverging opinions about the direction of the next big move.
Investor expectations are more important to market prices than current conditions. The pro-business, pro-growth economic proposals of president-elect Trump have encouraged expectations of tax reform, repatriation of corporate funds held offshore, infrastructure spending, and rollback of government regulations. On the other hand, BlackRock warns of low returns, higher inflation and more challenging markets: "Economic boom times look unlikely to return. The global economy’s potential for growth isn’t as strong as it has been, due to aging populations, weak productivity growth and excess savings. Returns may be lower, and the opportunities may be fewer and farther between." Some investors fear that Trump's trade policies might depress global economic growth.
Previously, we wrote: "Like most swings from fear to greed, this new optimism probably will go overboard. Actual conditions seldom are as good or as bad as the emotions of the crowd imply. There are bound to be many uncertainties surrounding the possible policies of the new Republican leadership, and plenty of market volatility to go with these uncertainties. Although the consensus now hopes for improving fundamental conditions going forward from here, the path is seldom smooth, even when the optimists prove to be right. Be prepared for short-term twists and turns for the stock market. And, as always, focus on being objective and flexible, and control risk."
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
• Global stock markets
• The Defensive stock sectors
• The Health Care sector
• The Cyclical sectors
• The Technology sector
• The Financials sector
• U.S. bonds and notes
• Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
• Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
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*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
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11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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