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| U.S. Stock Market Update Posted Friday, July 3, 2009, at 2:55 p.m. ET Stock Market: A confluence of cycles might be bringing trend change. Investor psychology may be shifting toward questioning “green shoots”. The S&P 500 broke down below 5-day lows on Thursday. Volume is falling as prices rise, and volume is rising as prices fall. That is Bearish. Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell steeply. XLY dropped in my long-term rankings. Energy (XLE) Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down to a new 6-month low. XLE has been underperforming relative to the price of the commodity, crude oil. Crude Oil August futures contract price broke down below 4-week lows. NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 moved up to an 8-year high. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio soared to a 4-month high. Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) plunged to a new 3-month low relative to SPY. U.S. Treasury Bond September futures contract price rose to a 6-week high. Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative. Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume % Price Change, Symbol, Name 3.86% , MTB , M&T BANK 2.74% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH 3.91% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC 2.40% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG 0.49% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH 2.11% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ 0.15% , XLNX , XILINX 2.28% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP 5.74% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ 0.78% , BAX , BAXTER INTL 4.55% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID 4.87% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD 5.45% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS 0.94% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH 0.09% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE 0.22% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated 0.58% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS 0.20% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A 0.45% , SYMC , SYMANTEC 0.24% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG 0.33% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF 0.15% , MKC , MCCORMICK Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume % Price Change, Symbol, Name -2.56% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC -3.37% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV -3.03% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI -5.37% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV -2.87% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV -2.11% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA -4.23% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV -2.85% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV -2.48% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH -2.25% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM -2.74% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG -2.96% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP -1.99% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI -2.76% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF -2.41% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP -6.51% , CIT , CIT GROUP -4.91% , EXC , EXELON CORP -1.58% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK -6.70% , R , RYDER SYSTEM -3.92% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI -2.72% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO -6.01% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT -6.38% , HAL , HALLIBURTON -3.56% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ -2.50% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB -7.34% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES -5.04% , CBS , CBS CORP. -4.23% , KR , KROGER -4.23% , ACE , ACE -3.08% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY -3.42% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE -5.83% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B -5.79% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON -3.85% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU -5.96% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT -4.56% , LOW , LOWES -9.48% , BC , BRUNSWICK -5.53% , RX , IMS HEALTH -4.97% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP -5.65% , BBY , BEST BUY 9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength: Technology (XLK) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose to its highest level in 7 years on 6/24/09. Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has stabilized since making a low on 5/6/09. Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose sharply since 6/15/09, and so Health Care rose in this ranking. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell steeply on 7/2/09 and broke down below 12-week lows on 6/24/09. Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 6/22/09, resulting in a move up in this long-term RS ranking. Materials (XLB) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) broke down to a new 8-week low on 6/22/09. Industrial (XLI) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down to a new 11-week low on 6/24/09. Energy (XLE) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down to a new 6-month low on 7/2/09. Since 2/18/09, XLE has been underperforming relative to the price of the commodity, crude oil. Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) broke down to a new 7-week low on 6/17/09, showing renewed weakness. The relative performance measurements of the 9 major sectors have been hinting at a shift in leadership. The sectors reflected a growing investor appetite for risk in March and April, but that started to change in May and became more evident in June. Foreign stock index ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) continued down after breaking down to a new 6-week low on 6/29/06. EFA is the ETF representing the EAFE, the international developed country stock markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 moved up to an 8-year high on 7/2/09. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio soared to a 4-month high on 7/2/06, which is Bullish. Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) plunged to a new 3-month low relative to SPY. IWD remains in a Bearish Major Trend, underperforming the SPY since 3/22/07. Long term, the IWD closing price broke down below its 9-year closing price lows on 3/9/09. In addition, the IWD Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) broke down to a new 6-year low on 3/6/09. The Small Cap/Large Cap Ratio is moderately higher for 2009 but has lost some momentum short term, since 6/5/09. Crude Oil August futures contract price broke down below 4-week lows. The big price run-up since February left oil overbought, and now oil is correcting that overbought condition. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction. The Energy stock sector underperformed Crude Oil since 2/18/09, and the XLE/ Crude Oil Ratio broke down to a new 6-month low on 6/29/09. Gold August futures contract price might be trying to bottom out since hitting a low at 913.2 on 6/23/09. From 6/3/09 to 6/23/09, Gold corrected a typical Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of its rise from 865.0 on 4/17/09 to 990.3 on 6/3/09. Longer term, Gold has been correcting and consolidating since making a peak at 1,033.9 on 3/17/08. Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to Gold bullion) turned upward on 10/27/08, and such an uptrend is Bullish for both GDX and Gold bullion. U.S. Treasury Bond September futures contract price rose to a 6-week high of 119-095 on 07/02/09. Bonds are obviously Bullish for the short term. Bond quality ratios (LQD/TLT) turned down since 6/10/09, suggesting a diminished appetite for risk. LQD/TLT is iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF (LQD) price divided by 20+ Years US Treasury Bond ETF price (TLT). The U.S. dollar price appears choppy, with a modest downside bias. The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. So, Contrary Thinking should be used with more precise market timing tools. Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 41.4% Bulls versus 29.9% Bears as of 7/1/09, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio was 1.38, down from 1.52 the previous week. The ratio’s 39-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, the median is 1.43, and the mean is 1.73. VIX Fear Index fell to a 9-month low of 25.35 on 6/29/09, indicating bullish complacency displacing fear. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates. VXN Fear Index fell to a 9-month low of 26.49 on 6/29/09, indicating bullish complacency displacing fear. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX. CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.54 on 5/4/09, indicating bullish sentiment near the top of the March-May bounce. The ratio’s 5-year mean is 0.67, median is 0.65, and its range is 0.35 to 1.35. ISEE Call/Put Ratio rose to 1.75 on 5/29/09, indicating bullish sentiment. The ratio’s 5-year mean is 1.43, median is 1.38, and its range is 0.51 to 3.16. Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and a net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the credit market crisis derailed that engine. From the stock market low on 3/9/09 to the high on 6/11/09, massive monetary and fiscal stimulation appeared to have had a positive impact on investor sentiment, but sentiment seems to be growing less positive since 6/11/09. The Dow Theory allows for a Secondary Reaction to the upside. The entire bounce from the March low to the June high still could be a Dow Theory Secondary Reaction, an intermediate-term correction that interrupts and moves in an opposite direction against the Bearish Primary Tide—and fools many into thinking a new Bull Market has started. A Secondary Reaction typically lasts several months and retraces a fraction of the previous Bear Market decline. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 5-month closing price high in June but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to close above its high of 5/6/09, thereby signaling a non-confirmation and calling into question the longevity of the Secondary Reaction. The two Averages originally signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both closed below their closing price lows of August, 2007. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line: Most of the time since 2000, the A-D Line has outperformed the price indexes. This relatively strong trend is continuing in 2009. But note that the A-D Line substantially underperformed the price indexes from 1956 to 2000, which was mostly a bullish period for the price indexes, as the stock market came to be increasingly dominated by large institutional investors who favor the large capitalization stocks for their liquidity and their well-established positions in their businesses. The A-D Line is more representative of smaller capitalization stocks, in contrast to the price indexes, most of which are much more representative of the very largest capitalization stocks. So, most of the time, relative strength of the A-D Line coincides with strength in smaller capitalization stocks relative to the largest capitalization stocks. The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio is moderately higher for 2009 but has lost some momentum short term, since 6/5/09. A confluence of cycles in early July appears to be bringing trend change: On 7/1/09, Uranus turned retrograde. On 7/2/09, a Gann number cycle hit: 90 weeks (90 is 1/4 of a 360 degree cycle) from the 10/11/07 top. On 7/2/09, a Fibonacci cycle hit: 55 days from the 5/8/09 high. On 7/2/09, Venus squares Neptune, Mercury trines Neptune, Venus squares Jupiter, Mercury trines Jupiter, Mercury squares Uranus. On 7/4/09, a Gann number cycle hits: 120 days (1/3 of a 360 degree cycle) from the 3/6/09 low. On 7/4/09, Mercury opposes Pluto. On 7/5/09, a Fibonacci number cycle hits: from the all-time high on 10/11/2007 to the low on 3/6/2009, the S&P 500 fell for 512 days. (512 is the 9th doubling of 1.) Applying a Fibonacci ratio of 0.236 times 512 equals 121, and 121 days from the 3/6/2009 low is 7/5/09. 121 is also the square of 11. On 7/6/09, Mars squares Neptune. On 7/7/09, Mars sextiles Uranus, the planet of action aspects the planet of change. On 7/7/09, a Full Moon with a Lunar Eclipse. S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance 1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007 1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007 1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007 1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007 1,440.24, high of 5/19/2008 1,406.32, high of 5/29/2008 1,381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 drop 1,366.59, high of 6/17/2008 1,335.63, high of 6/25/2008 1,313.15, high of 8/11/2008 1,274.42, high of 9/8/2008 1,255.09, high of 9/12/2008 1,238.807, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high 1,228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 drop 1,220.03, high of 9/25/2008 1,121.44, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2007-2009 drop 1,077.08, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove 1,044.31, high of 10/14/2008 1,014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 drop 1007.78, Gann 37.5% of 2007-2009 drop 1,007.51, high of 11/4/2008 956.23, high of 6/11/2009 943.85, high of 1/6/2009 941.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of June 2009 range 935.66, low of 6/12/2009 931.92, high of 7/1/2009 930.20, Fibonacci 61.8% of June 2009 range 930.17, high of 5/8/2009 930.01, high of 6/30/2009 S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support 919.32, low of 6/30/2009 888.86, low of 6/23/2009 883.87, Gann 75.0% of 2009 range 881.46, low of 5/26/2009 879.61, low of 5/21/2009 878.94, low of 5/15/2009 877.86, high of 1/28/2009 877.52, close of 5/1/2009 875.63, high of 4/17/2009 875.01, high of 2/9/2009 871.80, high of 4/24/2009 866.10, low of 5/1/2009 847.69, Gann 62.5% of 2009 range 847.12, low of 4/28/2009 845.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009 range 826.83, low of 4/21/2009 811.51, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2009 range 814.53, low of 4/7/2009 813.62, high of 4/1/2009 779.81, low of 3/30/2009 777.36, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009 range 775.33, Gann 37.5% of 2009 range 666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009 665.23, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove 602.07, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1,576.09 high Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day: % Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol 5.74% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ 5.45% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS 4.87% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD 4.55% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID 3.02% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY 2.74% Short 100% S&P 500, SH 2.40% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG 2.11% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ 0.49% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH 0.33% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF 0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG 0.23% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT 0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY 0.01% Bond, Corp, LQD -0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP -0.39% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW -0.55% Financial Preferred, PGF -0.65% 200% Short US T Bond, TBT -0.87% Taiwan Index, EWT -0.87% Semiconductor H, SMH -0.94% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW -0.99% 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST -1.00% Malaysia Index, EWM -1.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF -1.23% Gold Shares S.T., GLD -1.46% Belgium Index, EWK -1.49% Nanotech Lux, PXN -1.51% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD -1.58% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK -1.71% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC -1.74% Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG -1.99% Semiconductors, PSI -2.03% Technology GS, IGM -2.06% Insurance, PIC -2.06% Healthcare Global, IXJ -2.06% Internet Architecture H, IAH -2.07% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ -2.10% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP -2.11% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA -2.12% Technology DJ US, IYW -2.13% Austria Index, EWO -2.15% Telecom H, TTH -2.16% Canada Index, EWC -2.19% Software, IGV -2.20% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ -2.20% Japan Index, EWJ -2.22% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT -2.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC -2.23% Switzerland Index, EWL -2.24% Pharmaceutical H, PPH -2.24% Technology Global, IXN -2.25% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM -2.25% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV -2.25% Software H, SWH -2.26% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG -2.28% Materials VIPERs, VAW -2.30% Healthcare DJ, IYH -2.32% India Earnings WTree, EPI -2.33% Technology MS sT, MTK -2.36% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG -2.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG -2.37% Telecommunications Global, IXP -2.37% Software, PSJ -2.39% Health Care SPDR, XLV -2.40% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX -2.40% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA -2.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU -2.40% Growth Large Cap, ELG -2.41% Spain Index, EWP -2.41% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX -2.42% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE -2.43% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV -2.43% Utilities, PUI -2.44% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM -2.44% Health Care VIPERs, VHT -2.45% Dividend SPDR, SDY -2.45% Global Titans, DGT -2.48% Biotech H, BBH -2.48% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW -2.49% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG -2.50% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF -2.50% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB -2.51% Dividend International, PID -2.51% Networking, IGN -2.52% Technology SPDR, XLK -2.52% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ -2.54% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ -2.56% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC -2.57% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG -2.59% Internet H, HHH -2.59% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF -2.60% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD -2.61% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY -2.61% Dividend Leaders, FDL -2.61% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF -2.62% Food & Beverage, PBJ -2.62% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI -2.64% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK -2.65% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW -2.65% Brazil Index, EWZ -2.66% Pacific VIPERs, VPL -2.70% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME -2.72% Mexico Index, EWW -2.72% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO -2.72% LargeCap VIPERs, VV -2.73% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY -2.74% Emerging Markets, EEM -2.74% Growth S&P 500, RPG -2.74% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH -2.75% Materials SPDR, XLB -2.75% Global 100, IOO -2.76% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF -2.76% Netherlands Index, EWN -2.76% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV -2.77% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD -2.77% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP -2.78% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE -2.81% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY -2.83% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ -2.84% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY -2.84% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF -2.84% Utilities DJ, IDU -2.85% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI -2.85% Aerospace & Defense, PPA -2.85% Value S&P 500 B, IVE -2.85% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV -2.86% Emerging VIPERs, VWO -2.87% Utilities SPDR, XLU -2.88% EAFE Index, EFA -2.88% Silver Trust iS, SLV -2.89% Utilities VIPERs, VPU -2.90% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH -2.91% Telecom DJ US, IYZ -2.92% European VIPERs, VGK -2.94% Latin Am 40, ILF -2.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI -2.94% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK -2.95% Retail H, RTH -2.96% Pharmaceuticals, PJP -2.97% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC -2.98% Dividend DJ Select, DVY -2.99% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE -2.99% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ -3.00% Value VIPERs, VTV -3.00% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ -3.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP -3.01% Utilities H, UTH -3.01% Value MidCap iS M, JKI -3.03% Italy Index, EWI -3.03% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ -3.04% Industrials VIPERs, VIS -3.06% Financial Services DJ, IYG -3.07% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV -3.07% MidCap VIPERs, VO -3.08% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY -3.09% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV -3.09% South Korea Index, EWY -3.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY -3.11% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE -3.11% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV -3.12% Energy Global, IXC -3.13% Industrial SPDR, XLI -3.14% South Africa Index, EZA -3.15% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC -3.15% France Index, EWQ -3.17% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG -3.17% Small Cap VIPERs, VB -3.18% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV -3.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO -3.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP -3.20% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF -3.24% EMU Europe Index, EZU -3.25% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK -3.28% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ -3.30% Biotech & Genome, PBE -3.31% China 25 iS, FXI -3.32% Financial DJ US, IYF -3.32% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB -3.34% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR -3.35% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG -3.35% Bank Regional H, RKH -3.35% MidCap Russell, IWR -3.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT -3.37% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV -3.38% Singapore Index, EWS -3.39% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL -3.41% Financials VIPERs, VFH -3.42% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE -3.45% Financial SPDR, XLF -3.45% Building & Construction, PKB -3.46% Microcap Russell, IWC -3.46% Transportation Av DJ, IYT -3.48% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB -3.52% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR -3.54% Hong Kong Index, EWH -3.54% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU -3.56% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ -3.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS -3.64% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP -3.65% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT -3.71% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR -3.76% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO -3.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM -3.82% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW -3.83% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN -3.84% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG -3.85% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ -3.85% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU -3.85% Australia Index, EWA -3.87% Retail, PMR -3.87% Energy DJ, IYE -3.90% Value 1000 Russell, IWD -3.90% Value MidCap Russell, IWS -3.92% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI -3.92% Germany Index, EWG -3.92% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE -4.00% Energy VIPERs, VDE -4.01% Energy SPDR, XLE -4.02% Water Resources, PHO -4.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY -4.23% Value S&P 500, RPV -4.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF -4.30% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD -4.38% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD -4.55% Real Estate US DJ, IYR -4.67% Oil & Gas, PXJ -4.78% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM -4.87% Oil Services H, OIH -4.98% REIT Wilshire, RWR -5.22% Sweden Index, EWD -5.29% REIT VIPERs, VNQ -5.37% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO -5.37% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV -5.56% Internet B2B H, BHH -5.68% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 very significantly since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules. This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2009 4-Year Outperformance by the Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 104 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum. Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside. Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer. Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol 100 India Earnings WTree, EPI 99 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ 99 Software, PSJ 98 China 25 iS, FXI 98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV 97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD 97 Networking, IGN 97 South Africa Index, EZA 96 Financial Preferred, PGF 96 Preferred Stock iS, PFF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2009 Exchange Traded Funds Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 235 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 235 ETFs as of the posting date, above. Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead. Interpretation: 100 to 80, Buy 79 to 60, Hold 59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform 39 to 20, Avoid 19 to 0, Sell Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer. Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol 100 India Earnings WTree, EPI 99 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ 99 Software, PSJ 98 China 25 iS, FXI 98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV 97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD 97 Networking, IGN 97 South Africa Index, EZA 96 Financial Preferred, PGF 96 Preferred Stock iS, PFF 95 Technology MS sT, MTK 95 Malaysia Index, EWM 94 Technology DJ US, IYW 94 Hong Kong Index, EWH 94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD 93 Singapore Index, EWS 93 Internet Architecture H, IAH 92 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT 92 Software H, SWH 91 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG 91 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ 91 Bond, Corp, LQD 90 Technology GS, IGM 90 Biotech H, BBH 89 Emerging Markets, EEM 89 Software, IGV 89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO 88 Bond, Aggregate, AGG 88 Internet H, HHH 87 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ 87 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW 86 Taiwan Index, EWT 86 Technology Global, IXN 86 Semiconductor H, SMH 85 Brazil Index, EWZ 85 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ 84 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY 84 Technology SPDR, XLK 83 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG 83 Bond, TIPS, TIP 83 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG 82 Retail, PMR 82 Spain Index, EWP 81 Latin Am 40, ILF 81 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK 80 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG 80 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC 80 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF 79 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE 79 Pharmaceuticals, PJP 78 Pacific VIPERs, VPL 78 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP 77 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO 77 Internet B2B H, BHH 77 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX 76 Canada Index, EWC 76 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK 75 Japan Index, EWJ 75 Semiconductors, PSI 74 Growth S&P 500, RPG 74 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE 74 Short 100% S&P 500, SH 73 Food & Beverage, PBJ 73 Health Care VIPERs, VHT 72 South Korea Index, EWY 72 Silver Trust iS, SLV 71 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK 71 Healthcare DJ, IYH 71 Sweden Index, EWD 70 Mexico Index, EWW 70 Pharmaceutical H, PPH 69 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP 69 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK 69 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ 68 Small Cap VIPERs, VB 68 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA 67 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE 67 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE 66 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF 66 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ 66 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT 65 Health Care SPDR, XLV 65 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR 64 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT 64 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV 63 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF 63 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX 63 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP 62 Growth VIPERs, VUG 62 Switzerland Index, EWL 61 Growth Large Cap, ELG 61 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF 60 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF 60 Biotech SPDR, XBI 60 Retail H, RTH 59 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW 59 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV 58 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH 58 Healthcare Global, IXJ 57 Australia Index, EWA 57 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY 57 Water Resources, PHO 56 Microcap Russell, IWC 56 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP 55 Nanotech Lux, PXN 55 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR 54 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM 54 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC 54 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY 53 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV 53 Telecom DJ US, IYZ 52 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG 52 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV 51 Biotech & Genome, PBE 51 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT 51 200% Short US T Bond, TBT 50 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL 50 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR 49 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST 49 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO 49 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG 48 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP 48 MidCap Russell, IWR 47 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD 47 EAFE Index, EFA 46 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS 46 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ 46 Dividend Leaders, FDL 45 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI 45 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG 44 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG 44 Dividend International, PID 43 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD 43 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC 43 Utilities, PUI 42 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH 42 Utilities VIPERs, VPU 41 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW 41 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY 40 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV 40 Telecommunications Global, IXP 40 MidCap VIPERs, VO 39 Value MidCap iS M, JKI 39 Dividend SPDR, SDY 38 LargeCap VIPERs, VV 38 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB 37 Global Titans, DGT 37 Global 100, IOO 37 Utilities DJ, IDU 36 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI 36 United Kingdom Index, EWU 35 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY 35 Utilities SPDR, XLU 34 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB 34 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY 34 Aerospace & Defense, PPA 33 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV 33 Utilities H, UTH 32 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF 32 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD 31 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC 31 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU 31 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU 30 Telecom H, TTH 30 European VIPERs, VGK 29 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY 29 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ 29 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD 28 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV 28 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN 27 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA 27 Value MidCap Russell, IWS 26 Energy Global, IXC 26 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ 26 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ 25 Insurance, PIC 25 Value S&P 500, RPV 24 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY 24 Materials SPDR, XLB 23 France Index, EWQ 23 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ 23 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM 22 Building & Construction, PKB 22 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV 21 EMU Europe Index, EZU 21 Materials VIPERs, VAW 20 Value VIPERs, VTV 20 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD 20 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI 19 Transportation Av DJ, IYT 19 Netherlands Index, EWN 18 Austria Index, EWO 18 Italy Index, EWI 17 Value S&P 500 B, IVE 17 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW 17 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE 16 Value 1000 Russell, IWD 16 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG 15 Germany Index, EWG 15 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM 14 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW 14 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ 14 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME 13 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF 13 Belgium Index, EWK 12 Energy DJ, IYE 12 Industrials VIPERs, VIS 11 Commodity Tracking, DBC 11 Energy VIPERs, VDE 11 Industrial SPDR, XLI 10 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS 10 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV 9 Energy SPDR, XLE 9 Dividend DJ Select, DVY 9 Financial Services DJ, IYG 8 Bank Regional H, RKH 8 Oil Services H, OIH 7 Financials VIPERs, VFH 7 Financial DJ US, IYF 6 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB 6 Financial SPDR, XLF 6 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE 5 Oil & Gas, PXJ 5 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY 4 Real Estate US DJ, IYR 4 REIT VIPERs, VNQ 3 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH 3 REIT Wilshire, RWR 3 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ 2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO 2 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV 1 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF 1 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM 0 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID 0 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Simulated weekly performance of top 10 ETFs As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Date , S&P 500 , Top 10 8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00 8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91 9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90 9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88 9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31 9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78 10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69 10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18 10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75 10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37 10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15 11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23 11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52 11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46 11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81 12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65 12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30 12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70 12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94 12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56 1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27 1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64 1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28 1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88 2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24 2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17 2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41 2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46 3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68 3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14 3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62 3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85 4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68 4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70 4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41 4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40 4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41 5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85 5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51 5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64 5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80 6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63 6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76 6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09 6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50 7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38 7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64 7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40 7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44 7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01 8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40 8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66 8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84 8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34 9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72 9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25 9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58 9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65 9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84 10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57 10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26 10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12 10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34 11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69 11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53 11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84 11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81 12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02 12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54 12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02 12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72 12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29 1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09 1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86 1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81 1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57 2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78 2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81 2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41 2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62 3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95 3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37 3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31 3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00 3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19 4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40 4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56 4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21 4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62 5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42 5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23 5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52 5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11 6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42 6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68 6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42 6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56 6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29 7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11 7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15 7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84 7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93 8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29 8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55 8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44 8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05 9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35 9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73 9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02 9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19 9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84 10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44 10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77 10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84 10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04 11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49 11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29 11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07 11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50 12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09 12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66 12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28 12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79 12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22 1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88 1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24 1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95 1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36 2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69 2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36 2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28 2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58 3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04 3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61 3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79 3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15 3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59 4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16 4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67 4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01 4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21 5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23 5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71 5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36 5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33 6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19 6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55 6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92 6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29 6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20 7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72 7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39 7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16 7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93 8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58 8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79 8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13 8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28 8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84 9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92 9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73 9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08 9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07 10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06 10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48 10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36 10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40 11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57 11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38 11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55 11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27 11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12 12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39 12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62 12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20 12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02 1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75 1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50 1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83 1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64 2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90 2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09 2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77 2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08 2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12 3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50 3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18 3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69 3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06 4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64 4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30 4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34 4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58 5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80 5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58 5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96 5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26 5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73 6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04 6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44 6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08 6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55 7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71 7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77 7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17 7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02 8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91 8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91 8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17 8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27 8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79 9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60 9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92 9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93 9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47 10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50 10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08 10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04 10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28 10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12 11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90 11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64 11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02 11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64 12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06 12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07 12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21 12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49 1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77 1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82 1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16 1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12 1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69 2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81 2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89 2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70 2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07 3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45 3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97 3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01 3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49 4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61 4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66 4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55 4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64 5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41 5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64 5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68 5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97 5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85 6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89 6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71 6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50 6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93 7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32 Date , S&P 500 , Top 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Money Management Rules: At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link to save 9%-10% on MetaStock® software. Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial.
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Preview Colby's Latest Book: The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, 2003. Order Colby's Book Now for $59 and Save 21% off the Regular Price of $75. Dow Theory Analysis Gann Angles Analysis The best EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) Money Management Rules How To Become A Top Trader. Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using "Annual Relative Advantage". Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index". Robert W. Colby, CMT, is senior investment strategist at TraderPlanet.com, TradingEducation.com, and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing. Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of years. Mr. Colby has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (www.mtaeducationalfoundation.org/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators." --Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com Please click here to contact Colby directly. Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer. Privacy Policy: Your privacy is important to us. It is strictly against the policy of this website to employ spam, popups, ad ware, or spy ware. Copyright © 2000-2009 by www.robertwcolby.com. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. However, quotations are permitted, provided that full attribution is given to www.robertwcolby.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . This technical analysis is powered by powerful computing hardware from the following providers: ![]()
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ranking ETFs "Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TradingMarkets.com interviewed Robert W. Colby, CMT. View the entire interview online. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Past daily update archives are online. Please click here, scroll to the bottom of the linked page, and click on any past date. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hedge Funds Under Pressure in 2008 "The financial crisis that crippled mortgage lenders, shut down leveraged buyouts and ended the era of independent investment banks is bearing down on the $1.9 trillion hedge-fund industry. Managers are bracing for a surge in client withdrawals after average returns fell 8 percent through Sept. 19 [2008], the worst first nine months of a year since Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. started tracking the data in 1990. Investment gains are being squeezed by higher bank lending rates, and regulators are now clamping down on short selling, undermining hedge-fund managers' trading strategies." -- Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYMbQvrlfUe4&refer=exclusive Click here for a graph of a diversified futures system simulated performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link: Please click here to contact Colby directly. Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2009 Global Markets Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead. Interpretation: 100 to 80, Buy 79 to 60, Hold 59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform 39 to 20, Avoid 19 to 0, Sell Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer. Weekly Major Trend Rank Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol 100 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM 99 SOYBEANS, S 97 China 25 iS, FXI 96 FEEDER CATTLE, FC 95 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD 93 Malaysia Index, EWM 92 GOLD 100 CMX, GC 91 Hong Kong Index, EWH 89 Gold Shares S.T., GLD 88 Singapore Index, EWS 87 SWISS FRANC, SF 86 JAPANESE YEN, JY 84 Bond, Corp, LQD 83 Emerging Markets, EEM 82 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK 80 BRITISH POUND, BP 79 Bond, Aggregate, AGG 78 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ 76 Taiwan Index, EWT 75 Semiconductor H, SMH 74 Brazil Index, EWZ 72 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY 71 Technology SPDR, XLK 70 Bond, TIPS, TIP 68 Latin Am 40, ILF 67 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD 66 LUMBER, LB 64 COPPER CMX H/G, HG 63 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF 62 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO 61 Canada Index, EWC 59 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY 58 Japan Index, EWJ 57 LIVE CATTLE, LC 55 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI 54 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL 53 US T-Bonds, US 51 South Korea Index, EWY 50 Silver Trust iS, SLV 49 RAPESEED, RS 47 Mexico Index, EWW 46 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP 45 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT 43 Health Care SPDR, XLV 42 LIVE HOGS, LH 41 Biotech SPDR, XBI 39 Retail H, RTH 38 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY 37 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM 36 Consumer D. SPDR, XLY 34 EAFE Index, EFA 33 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI 32 Utilities SPDR, XLU 30 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY 29 S&P 500 INDEX, SP 28 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV 26 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA 25 Materials SPDR, XLB 24 France Index, EWQ 22 Transportation Av DJ, IYT 21 Austria Index, EWO 20 HEATING OIL, HO 18 Germany Index, EWG 17 SOYBEAN OIL, BO 16 Belgium Index, EWK 14 Commodity Tracking, DBC 13 Industrial SPDR, XLI 12 Energy SPDR, XLE 11 Dividend DJ Select, DVY 9 Oil Services H, OIH 8 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB 7 Financial SPDR, XLF 5 CORN, C 4 WHEAT, W 3 Real Estate US DJ, IYR 1 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB 0 NATURAL GAS, NG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
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