|technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
July 24, 2017
Don't be caught off guard!
Preview from my weekly report*
U.S. stock price indexes are in short-term, 11-day uptrends. Volume and momentum indicators are lagging, however. Bullish sentiment is extreme, as quantified by $VIX Volatility and the Equity Put/Call Ratio.
The RSI and MACD momentum oscillators confirm short-term uptrends, but they are below previous peaks, suggesting medium-term bearish technical momentum divergences.
On-Balance Volume confirms a short-term uptrend, but it failed to rise above its 12/2014 high.
Short-term price trends change frequently, often in reaction to the latest news and rumors, and so they can be fickle and unreliable.
Long-term price trends have remained bullish for more than 8 years, since March, 2009, significantly exceeding the average life span of past bull market trends. Still, it would be premature to bet against this very old bull while it is still showing signs of vitality--despite worrisome news headlines, sluggish economic data, excessive valuations, and technical divergences.
Probabilities favor a downside shakeout for the stock market this year. The S&P 500 lost more than 3% eleven times from May, 2015 to November, 2016--but not once since November,2016. This recent extremely low volatility is far outside the normal range of probability.
The stock market has suffered more than 3 price drops of 5% or more a year on average over the past 120 years. In addition, it has dropped 10% or more about once a year, 15% or more once every 2 years, and 20% or more about every 4 years, on average. Stocks have declined 20% to 89% 34 times in 120 years, or 28% of the time. Investors need protection against that kind of loss. We aim to provide that protection. Capital preservation must be the first priority in any rational investment strategy.
Isolating the 10-year cycle alone, we observe the following downside moves for years ending in 7 (such as 2017): -45.5% in 1937, -14.7% in 1947, -20.7% in 1957, -6.6% in 1967, -15.6% in 1977, -33.5% in 1987, -10.8% in 1997, and -10.1% in 2007. So years ending in 7 can be quite risky.
Don't be caught off guard if 2017 proves to be a year of greater volatility and stunning surprises. We have plans and systems in place and are ready to adapt to rapid change.
We have made positive returns with far less volatility of returns than the S&P 500.
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
• Global stock markets
• The Defensive stock sectors
• The Health Care sector
• The Cyclical sectors
• The Technology sector
• The Financials sector
• U.S. bonds and notes
• Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
• Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
Now is the time to take action. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios.
Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--but we will.
If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion.
We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer all your questions.
Call us now for a free consultation.
by phone: 646-652-6879
or by email: firstname.lastname@example.org
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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