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Posted Thursday, May 8, 2008, at 11:55 p.m. ET
Stock Price Momentum turning Bearish.
MACD crossed below its Signal Line, based on the end-of-day SPY.
RSI (14) fell to 54, its lowest level in 3 weeks, based on the end-of-day SPY.
Just a few days ago, the SPY had been overbought with RSI (14) above 66, at its highest level since the top last October 2007.
Commodity price indexes broke out to new all-time highs.
Crude Oil jumped up to a another new high, which is not good for the economy.
Energy and Materials Stock Sectors were strong.
Financial and Health Care Stock Sectors were weak.
On Thursday, major stock price indexes turned choppy within narrow ranges. Stocks closed mixed, although the majority of indexes and stocks showed modest gains. Total NYSE volume fell 6%, thereby not confirming the firmer price action.
Energy and Materials Stock Sectors were strongest. Financial and Health Care Stock Sectors were weak. This one-day price action conforms perfectly to my long-term Relative Strength Rankings, shown below. These rankings have kept us on the winning side of the major sector trends.
The recent 7-week upward tilting stock price correction had been more persistent than any rally since the one that ended on 10/11/07, although not remarkable or unusual for a counter-trend rally in a Bear Market. I am assuming that the March-May rally was nothing more than a Secondary Reaction Continuation Pattern within the context of a Primary Bearish Trend.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential “event” stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol , Name
10.00% , DISCA , Discovery Holding Co.
0.67% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
10.30% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
9.09% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.52% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
4.04% , SYK , STRYKER
4.55% , TE , TECO ENERGY
0.43% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
3.10% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
6.96% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
4.13% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
0.20% , PHJ , Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
4.72% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
2.14% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.23% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
0.79% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.76% , PLL , PALL
2.28% , NWS.A , NEWS CORP STK A
0.37% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.27% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.56% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
2.92% , SGP , SCHERING PLOUGH
1.08% , CCU , CLEAR CHANNEL
0.69% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.86% , IGV , Software, IGV
0.80% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.36% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
2.72% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.83% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
4.10% , AA , ALCOA
2.26% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
3.12% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
1.52% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
2.22% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
2.73% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
0.96% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.69% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.85% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
1.13% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
0.81% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol , Name
-15.34% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-3.11% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-4.49% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.12% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-4.11% , ZION , ZIONS
-3.22% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.36% , TJX , TJX
-5.61% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-2.92% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.69% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-2.73% , MYL , MYLAN LABS
-1.34% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.26% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.24% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-3.96% , WM , WASHINGTON MUT
-3.21% , LOW , LOWES
-2.31% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-4.20% , CC , CIRCUIT CITY STR
-2.19% , GPS , GAP
-0.92% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-3.07% , WB , WACHOVIA
-2.23% , SPLS , STAPLES
-2.23% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
-2.06% , TGT , TARGET
-4.35% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-0.98% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.04% , XLF , Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.89% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-2.24% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-2.81% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.26% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.24% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-2.04% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-3.03% , NCC , NATIONAL CITY
-1.55% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.15% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-1.32% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.67% , CR , CRANE
-1.07% , VFC , VF
-2.53% , SNV , SYNOVUS
Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, 8 rose and 2 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change Sector
2.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.71% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.34% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.29% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.25% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.38% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.04% Financial SPDR, XLF
Looking beyond the daily fluctuation to the major trends (listed in order of long-term relative strength):
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. On 4/22/08, both the XLE price close and the XLE/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to new all-time highs, again confirming a major uptrend.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. On 4/16/08, both the XLB price and the XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to new all-time highs, confirming a major uptrend.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. On 5/1/08, the XLI/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 3-month high, confirming an improving intermediate-term trend.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. On 5/6/08, the XLP/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 3-month low, confirming a corrective intermediate-term trend.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. On 5/8/08, the XLK/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 3-month high, signaling an improving intermediate-term trend.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The XLU/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has been in a moderately rising trend since 3/25/08, and so Utilities have improved somewhat in these rankings.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 4/30/08, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 3-month low, suggesting renewed weakness. On 1/11/08, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 6-year low, confirming a major downtrend.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Underweight. On 5/6/08, the XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 6-year low, again confirming the existing Primary Bearish trend.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 3/17/08, both absolute price and the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to their lowest levels in nearly 5-years, again confirming a major Bearish trend.
Foreign stock indexes outperformed since 2/8/08. In addition, from the major bottom on 3/12/03, the EFA outperformed, so the major trend is up. EFA is the ETF representing the EAFE, the international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada.
NASDAQ Composite price underperformed since 11/7/07. The Minor Ripple trend has improved only slightly since 3/3/08 and appears questionable at best. On 3/3/08, Relative Strength fell to a new 9-month low, confirming a significant downtrend.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio has been in an uptrend for the intermediate term, since 2/1/08. Long term, the Growth/Value ratio (IWF/IWD) has been in an uptrend since 8/8/06.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio broke down to a new 2.5-year low on 1/11/08. It has been trending down since 4/19/06. The main long-term trend is Relatively Bearish for Small Caps.
Crude Oil June futures jumped up to another new all-time high, confirming uptrends in all time frames. Oil has gone up 5 consecutive sessions. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.
The Energy stock sector has underperformed Crude Oil since 12/10/07.
Gold June futures reversed to the upside to close above the highest prices of the previous 7 trading days. The very short-term trend may be up, but price is still below the falling trendline from the 3/17/08 top, so Gold may still be in an intermediate-term Secondary Reaction, downside correction. Longer term, the 7-year trend is still Bullish.
Silver sharply underperformed Gold since 3/5/08. In addition, iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) has been relatively weak compared to Gold longer term, since 12/7/06. Finally, for the past 28 years, since 1/2/80, Silver has underperformed Gold.
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) / Gold Bullion Relative Strength Ratio fell to another new low on 4/29/08. Longer-term, GDX significantly underperformed Gold since 10/31/07. Therefore, GDX trends are Bearish relative to Gold itself.
U.S. Treasury Bond prices jumped up to close above the highest prices of the previous 3 trading days. It is not clear that bonds are ending their Secondary Reaction, intermediate-term downside correction phase in force since 3/20/08. Bond prices benefit from fears of financial crisis, and they correct to the downside when financial crisis takes a back seat to some other news of the day.
The U.S. dollar stalled but is still in a minor uptrend. The U.S. dollar has been rising since its low on 4/22/08. The major trend of the dollar remains down, however.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: Traders need to be extremely nimble to keep up with rapid changes in the mass mood of late. The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again many times in recent weeks, creating an extremely choppy trading environment. Investors’ moods and stock volatility have jumped up and down abruptly with the latest “reports”. When mass psychology shifts so dramatically and unpredictably from hope to fear, without warning, risk control becomes more important than aggressive profit seeking. Stay flexible.
Sentiment/Contrary Opinion: There were 44.4% Bulls versus 32.3% Bears as of 5/7/08, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.37, up from 1.29 the previous week. The ratio’s 38-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, and the median is 1.47.
VIX “Fear Index”, now at 19.40, is very low by Bear Market standards (around 20 to 40) but relatively high by Bull Market standards (around 10 to 20). Longer term, VIX has been in a rising trend since it hit a 13-year low of 9.89 on 1/24/07. The all-time high was 45.74 on 10/8/98. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN “Fear Index”, now at 23.18, is very low by Bear Market standards (around 35 to 80) but relatively high by Bull Market standards (around 12 to 26). Longer term, VXN has been in a rising trend since it hit its all-time low of 12.61 on 7/29/05. The all-time high was 114.23 on 10/8/98. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio is 0.60, which indicates relatively neutral sentiment. Its 4-year simple moving average and median are 0.62, and its 4-year range is 0.35 to 1.28.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio is 1.33, which indicates somewhat Bearish sentiment. The ratio’s 4-year simple moving average is 1.50, 4-year median is 1.47, and 4-year range is 0.51 to 3.04.
Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and the net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the subprime credit market crisis has derailed that engine. Economic statistics and corporate earnings have been weakening.
A Secondary Reaction was signaled on 4/18/28, when the Dow-Jones Industrials and Transports both closed at 3-month highs. But the Primary Tide Major Trend still may be Bearish. The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Bear Market on 11/21/07 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their respective closing price lows of August, 2007.
To discover the next Resistance, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index (1,397.68):
Potential Resistance
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,435.65, low of 12/18/2007
1,430.28, high of 1/8/08
1,422.72, high of 5/2/2008
To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index (1,397.68):
Potential Support
1,383.07, low of 5/1/2008
1,324.35, low of 4/15/2008
1,256.98, low of 3/17/2008
1,224.54, low of 7/18/2006
1,219.29, low of 6/14/2006
1,214.45, low of 11/4/2005
1,201.07, low of 11/2/2005
1,168.20, low of 10/13/2005
1,163.23, high of 3/5/2004
1,159.86, low of 5/17/2005
1,153.64, low of 5/16/2005
1,146.18, low of 5/13/2005
1,139.14, low of 4/29/2005
1,136.37, low of 4/20/2005
Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
3.39% Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.73% Oil Services H, OIH
2.73% Australia Index, EWA
2.40% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.37% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.26% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
2.14% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.98% Energy DJ, IYE
1.93% South Africa Index, EZA
1.91% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.90% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.90% Materials VIPERs, VAW
1.71% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.65% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.63% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.52% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
1.50% China 25 iS, FXI
1.48% Sweden Index, EWD
1.46% Energy Global, IXC
1.40% Spain Index, EWP
1.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.34% Water Resources, PHO
1.33% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.28% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.21% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.20% Broadband H, BDH
1.19% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.18% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.07% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.05% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.03% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.02% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
1.01% Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.99% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.99% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.96% Networking, IGN
0.95% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.95% Technology MS sT, MTK
0.92% European VIPERs, VGK
0.90% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.89% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.89% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
0.87% EAFE Index, EFA
0.86% Software, IGV
0.86% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.86% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.86% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.86% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.83% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
0.82% Internet H, HHH
0.81% Biotech H, BBH
0.80% Building & Construction, PKB
0.79% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
0.78% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.78% Canada Index, EWC
0.77% Semiconductors, PSI
0.76% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.76% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
0.75% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.75% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.75% Software H, SWH
0.75% Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.74% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.73% Germany Index, EWG
0.71% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.70% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
0.70% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.69% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.69% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.67% Technology GS, IGM
0.66% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.66% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.65% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.63% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
0.62% Utilities H, UTH
0.62% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.62% Software, PSJ
0.61% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.61% Dividend International, PID
0.60% France Index, EWQ
0.60% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.59% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.58% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.58% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
0.57% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.57% Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.56% Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.56% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.56% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.55% Technology Global, IXN
0.55% Biotechnology, IBB
0.54% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.52% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.52% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.52% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.50% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
0.49% MidCap VIPERs, VO
0.47% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.47% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
0.47% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.45% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
0.45% Japan Index, EWJ
0.45% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.44% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.44% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.44% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.43% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.43% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
0.42% Utilities, PUI
0.42% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.42% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.41% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.41% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.41% Semiconductor H, SMH
0.41% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.40% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.38% Global 100, IOO
0.37% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.37% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.34% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.33% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.32% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.32% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.32% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.31% Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.30% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.30% Mexico Index, EWW
0.30% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
0.29% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.29% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.28% Utilities DJ, IDU
0.27% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.27% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.26% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.26% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.25% Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.25% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.25% Networking, PXQ
0.23% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.23% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
0.23% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.22% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.21% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.21% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.20% Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
0.19% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.19% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.18% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
0.18% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.16% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.15% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.15% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.13% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
0.13% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.12% Insurance, PIC
0.12% Belgium Index, EWK
0.12% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
0.12% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.11% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
0.10% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.09% Telecom H, TTH
0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.07% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.07% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.05% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.04% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.04% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.03% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
0.00% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-0.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.04% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.06% Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.06% Italy Index, EWI
-0.07% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.11% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.12% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-0.12% Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.12% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.14% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.16% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.16% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-0.18% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.19% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.19% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.19% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.20% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.21% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.22% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-0.24% Austria Index, EWO
-0.26% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-0.26% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.26% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.31% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-0.32% Growth S&P 500, RPG
-0.33% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.36% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-0.36% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.38% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.38% Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.38% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.42% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.47% Global Titans, DGT
-0.49% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.51% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.52% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-0.60% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.69% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.71% Hardware & Electronics, PHW
-0.74% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.79% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.81% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.82% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.85% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.96% Retail H, RTH
-0.98% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.98% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.07% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.12% Retail, PMR
-1.13% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.14% Bank Regional H, RKH
-1.17% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.26% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-1.34% Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.54% Internet B2B H, BHH
-2.04% Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.49% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs beat the market, rising more than 3 times as much as the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .For Week ended Friday, May 2, 2008, as of Friday's close
3-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength gained 3.06 times more, or 59.07 percentage points more, than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These “Top 10” are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
99 Brazil Index, EWZ
99 Latin Am 40, ILF
98 Commodity Tracking, DBC
98 Internet B2B H, BHH
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
97 Oil & Gas, PXJ
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
For Week ended Friday, May 2, 2008, as of Friday's close
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 238 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 238 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
99 Brazil Index, EWZ
99 Latin Am 40, ILF
98 Commodity Tracking, DBC
98 Internet B2B H, BHH
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
97 Oil & Gas, PXJ
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
95 Energy DJ, IYE
95 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
94 Oil Services H, OIH
94 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
94 China 25 iS, FXI
93 Energy Global, IXC
93 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
92 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
92 Taiwan Index, EWT
91 Emerging Markets, EEM
91 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
91 Canada Index, EWC
90 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
90 Materials VIPERs, VAW
89 Singapore Index, EWS
89 Spain Index, EWP
89 Silver Trust iS, SLV
88 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
88 Hong Kong Index, EWH
87 Water Resources, PHO
87 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
86 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
86 Materials SPDR, XLB
86 Internet Architecture H, IAH
85 Biotech SPDR, XBI
85 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
84 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
84 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
83 Mexico Index, EWW
83 Austria Index, EWO
83 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
82 South Korea Index, EWY
82 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
81 Software, IGV
81 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
80 Germany Index, EWG
80 Utilities SPDR, XLU
80 Industrial SPDR, XLI
79 Netherlands Index, EWN
79 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
78 Utilities DJ, IDU
78 Technology GS, IGM
77 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
77 Australia Index, EWA
77 Technology Global, IXN
76 Growth VIPERs, VUG
76 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
75 Industrials VIPERs, VIS
75 Utilities, PUI
74 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
74 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
74 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
73 France Index, EWQ
73 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
72 Retail H, RTH
72 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
71 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
71 Growth Large Cap, ELG
71 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
70 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
70 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
69 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Technology SPDR, XLK
69 EMU Europe Index, EZU
68 Growth S&P 500, RPG
68 South Africa Index, EZA
67 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
67 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
66 Technology MS sT, MTK
66 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
66 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
65 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
65 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
64 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
64 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
63 Aerospace & Defense, PPA
63 Internet H, HHH
63 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
62 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
62 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
61 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
61 Bond, TIPS, TIP
60 Food & Beverage, PBJ
60 Semiconductors, PSI
60 Dividend International, PID
59 Global 100, IOO
59 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
58 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
58 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
57 Utilities H, UTH
57 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
57 Malaysia Index, EWM
56 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
56 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
55 REIT Wilshire, RWR
55 Switzerland Index, EWL
54 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
54 Belgium Index, EWK
54 EAFE Index, EFA
53 MidCap Russell, IWR
53 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
52 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
52 European VIPERs, VGK
51 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
51 Software H, SWH
51 Telecommunications Global, IXP
50 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
50 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
49 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
49 Japan Index, EWJ
49 Biotechnology, IBB
48 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
48 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
47 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
47 Bond, Corp, LQD
46 MidCap VIPERs, VO
46 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
46 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
45 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
45 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
44 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
44 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
43 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
43 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
43 Semiconductor H, SMH
42 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
42 Biotech & Genome, PBE
41 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
41 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
40 Sweden Index, EWD
40 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
40 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
39 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
39 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
38 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
38 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
37 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
37 Building & Construction, PKB
37 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
36 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
36 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
35 Short 100% S&P 500, SH
35 Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
34 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
34 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
34 United Kingdom Index, EWU
33 Global Titans, DGT
33 Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
32 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
32 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
31 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
31 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
31 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
30 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
30 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
29 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
29 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
29 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
28 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
28 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
27 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
27 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
26 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
26 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
26 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
25 Italy Index, EWI
25 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
24 Telecom H, TTH
24 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
23 Value VIPERs, VTV
23 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
23 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
22 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
22 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
21 Broadband H, BDH
21 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
20 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
20 Insurance, PIC
20 Networking, IGN
19 Dividend SPDR, SDY
19 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
18 Retail, PMR
18 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
17 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
17 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
17 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
16 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
16 Software, PSJ
15 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
15 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
14 Healthcare DJ, IYH
14 Value MidCap iS M, JKI
14 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
13 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
13 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
12 Biotech H, BBH
12 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
11 Health Care SPDR, XLV
11 Healthcare Global, IXJ
11 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
10 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
10 Bank Regional H, RKH
9 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
9 Networking, PXQ
9 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
8 Pharmaceutical H, PPH
8 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
7 Value S&P 500, RPV
7 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
6 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
6 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
6 Financials VIPERs, VFH
5 Financial DJ US, IYF
5 Microcap Russell, IWC
4 Financial SPDR, XLF
4 Dividend Leaders, FDL
3 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3 Nanotech Lux, PXN
3 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2 Financial Services DJ, IYG
2 Hardware & Electronics, PHW
1 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
1 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
0 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs
As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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New--Announcing MetaStock® 10.0
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Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis
The best EMAs
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Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using "Annual Relative Advantage".
Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT
(Chartered Market Technician),
is senior investment strategist at TradingEducation.com and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients’ objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing.
"Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
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Gold’s next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold’s relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal. By Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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Japanese Candlesticks tested by Robert W. Colby, CMT, in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006. “PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?” pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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Active Trader Interviews
Robert W. Colby, CMT
A four-page interview was published in the September 2004 issue of Active Trader, Short-Term Trading Strategies in the Financial Markets: “Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators. By Active Trader Staff.”
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Hedge Funds and Managed Futures Both Underperformed in 2006
Of 63 public futures funds professionally managed by the biggest names in the business, 18 actually lost money in 2006. The average managed futures fund gained only 2.57% in 2006, which was much less than the return on risk-free U.S. Treasury Bills. And 2006 was actually an improvement over 2005, when 56% of the funds lost money, and the average fund lost 0.26%. Most managed futures funds rely on some form of systematic trend following.
Click here for a graph of a diversified futures system simulated performance.
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For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 30 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
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For Week ended Friday, May 2, 2008, as of Friday's close
Global Markets
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Major Trend Rank
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 NATURAL GAS, NG
88 CORN, C
87 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL
86 Brazil Index, EWZ
85 HEATING OIL, HO
84 Latin Am 40, ILF
83 Commodity Tracking, DBC
81 SOYBEAN OIL, BO
80 LIVE HOGS, LH
79 SOYBEANS, S
78 LIQUID PROPANE, PN
77 RAPESEED, RS
76 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM
74 Energy SPDR, XLE
73 Oil Services H, OIH
72 COPPER CMX H/G, HG
71 China 25 iS, FXI
70 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
69 Taiwan Index, EWT
67 Emerging Markets, EEM
66 Canada Index, EWC
65 Singapore Index, EWS
64 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD
63 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI
62 Silver Trust iS, SLV
60 Hong Kong Index, EWH
59 GOLD 100 CMX, GC
58 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
57 SWISS FRANC, SF
56 Materials SPDR, XLB
55 Biotech SPDR, XBI
53 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
52 JAPANESE YEN, JY
51 Mexico Index, EWW
50 Austria Index, EWO
49 South Korea Index, EWY
48 Germany Index, EWG
47 Utilities SPDR, XLU
45 Industrial SPDR, XLI
44 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
43 France Index, EWQ
42 Retail H, RTH
41 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
40 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
38 Technology SPDR, XLK
37 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
36 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY
35 Bond, TIPS, TIP
34 US T-Bonds, US
33 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD
31 Malaysia Index, EWM
30 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
29 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
28 Belgium Index, EWK
27 EAFE Index, EFA
26 FEEDER CATTLE, FC
24 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
23 LIVE CATTLE, LC
22 Japan Index, EWJ
21 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
20 Bond, Corp, LQD
19 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
17 S&P 500 INDEX, SP
16 Semiconductor H, SMH
15 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI
14 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
13 BRITISH POUND, BP
12 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
10 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
9 Consumer D. SPDR, XLY
8 WHEAT, W
7 Health Care SPDR, XLV
6 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK
5 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
3 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2 Financial SPDR, XLF
1 LUMBER, LB
0 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB
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