www.robertwcolby.com
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
Posted Friday, July 3, 2009, at 2:55 p.m. ET
Stock Market: A confluence of cycles might be bringing trend change.
Investor psychology may be shifting toward questioning “green shoots”.
The S&P 500 broke down below 5-day lows on Thursday.
Volume is falling as prices rise, and volume is rising as prices fall. That is Bearish.
Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell steeply. XLY dropped in my long-term rankings.
Energy (XLE) Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down to a new 6-month low. XLE has been underperforming relative to the price of the commodity, crude oil.
Crude Oil August futures contract price broke down below 4-week lows.
NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 moved up to an 8-year high.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio soared to a 4-month high.
Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) plunged to a new 3-month low relative to SPY.
U.S. Treasury Bond September futures contract price rose to a 6-week high.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.86% , MTB , M&T BANK
2.74% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
3.91% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
2.40% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.49% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
2.11% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.15% , XLNX , XILINX
2.28% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
5.74% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.78% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
4.55% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
4.87% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
5.45% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.94% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
0.09% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
0.22% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
0.58% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
0.20% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
0.45% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.24% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.33% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.15% , MKC , MCCORMICK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.56% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-3.37% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-3.03% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-5.37% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.87% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.11% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-4.23% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.85% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.48% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.25% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-2.74% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.96% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.99% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.76% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-2.41% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-6.51% , CIT , CIT GROUP
-4.91% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.58% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-6.70% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-3.92% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-2.72% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-6.01% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-6.38% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-3.56% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-2.50% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-7.34% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-5.04% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-4.23% , KR , KROGER
-4.23% , ACE , ACE
-3.08% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-3.42% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-5.83% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
-5.79% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-3.85% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-5.96% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-4.56% , LOW , LOWES
-9.48% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-5.53% , RX , IMS HEALTH
-4.97% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-5.65% , BBY , BEST BUY
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose to its highest level in 7 years on 6/24/09.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has stabilized since making a low on 5/6/09.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose sharply since 6/15/09, and so Health Care rose in this ranking.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell steeply on 7/2/09 and broke down below 12-week lows on 6/24/09.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 6/22/09, resulting in a move up in this long-term RS ranking.
Materials (XLB) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) broke down to a new 8-week low on 6/22/09.
Industrial (XLI) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down to a new 11-week low on 6/24/09.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down to a new 6-month low on 7/2/09. Since 2/18/09, XLE has been underperforming relative to the price of the commodity, crude oil.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) broke down to a new 7-week low on 6/17/09, showing renewed weakness.
The relative performance measurements of the 9 major sectors have been hinting at a shift in leadership. The sectors reflected a growing investor appetite for risk in March and April, but that started to change in May and became more evident in June.
Foreign stock index ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) continued down after breaking down to a new 6-week low on 6/29/06. EFA is the ETF representing the EAFE, the international developed country stock markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength versus the S&P 500 moved up to an 8-year high on 7/2/09.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio soared to a 4-month high on 7/2/06, which is Bullish.
Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) plunged to a new 3-month low relative to SPY. IWD remains in a Bearish Major Trend, underperforming the SPY since 3/22/07. Long term, the IWD closing price broke down below its 9-year closing price lows on 3/9/09. In addition, the IWD Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) broke down to a new 6-year low on 3/6/09.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Ratio is moderately higher for 2009 but has lost some momentum short term, since 6/5/09.
Crude Oil August futures contract price broke down below 4-week lows. The big price run-up since February left oil overbought, and now oil is correcting that overbought condition. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.
The Energy stock sector underperformed Crude Oil since 2/18/09, and the XLE/ Crude Oil Ratio broke down to a new 6-month low on 6/29/09.
Gold August futures contract price might be trying to bottom out since hitting a low at 913.2 on 6/23/09. From 6/3/09 to 6/23/09, Gold corrected a typical Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of its rise from 865.0 on 4/17/09 to 990.3 on 6/3/09. Longer term, Gold has been correcting and consolidating since making a peak at 1,033.9 on 3/17/08.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to Gold bullion) turned upward on 10/27/08, and such an uptrend is Bullish for both GDX and Gold bullion.
U.S. Treasury Bond September futures contract price rose to a 6-week high of 119-095 on 07/02/09. Bonds are obviously Bullish for the short term.
Bond quality ratios (LQD/TLT) turned down since 6/10/09, suggesting a diminished appetite for risk. LQD/TLT is iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF (LQD) price divided by 20+ Years US Treasury Bond ETF price (TLT).
The U.S. dollar price appears choppy, with a modest downside bias.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. So, Contrary Thinking should be used with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 41.4% Bulls versus 29.9% Bears as of 7/1/09, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio was 1.38, down from 1.52 the previous week. The ratio’s 39-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, the median is 1.43, and the mean is 1.73.
VIX Fear Index fell to a 9-month low of 25.35 on 6/29/09, indicating bullish complacency displacing fear. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to a 9-month low of 26.49 on 6/29/09, indicating bullish complacency displacing fear. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.54 on 5/4/09, indicating bullish sentiment near the top of the March-May bounce. The ratio’s 5-year mean is 0.67, median is 0.65, and its range is 0.35 to 1.35.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio rose to 1.75 on 5/29/09, indicating bullish sentiment. The ratio’s 5-year mean is 1.43, median is 1.38, and its range is 0.51 to 3.16.
Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and a net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the credit market crisis derailed that engine. From the stock market low on 3/9/09 to the high on 6/11/09, massive monetary and fiscal stimulation appeared to have had a positive impact on investor sentiment, but sentiment seems to be growing less positive since 6/11/09.
The Dow Theory allows for a Secondary Reaction to the upside. The entire bounce from the March low to the June high still could be a Dow Theory Secondary Reaction, an intermediate-term correction that interrupts and moves in an opposite direction against the Bearish Primary Tide—and fools many into thinking a new Bull Market has started. A Secondary Reaction typically lasts several months and retraces a fraction of the previous Bear Market decline. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 5-month closing price high in June but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to close above its high of 5/6/09, thereby signaling a non-confirmation and calling into question the longevity of the Secondary Reaction. The two Averages originally signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both closed below their closing price lows of August, 2007.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line: Most of the time since 2000, the A-D Line has outperformed the price indexes. This relatively strong trend is continuing in 2009. But note that the A-D Line substantially underperformed the price indexes from 1956 to 2000, which was mostly a bullish period for the price indexes, as the stock market came to be increasingly dominated by large institutional investors who favor the large capitalization stocks for their liquidity and their well-established positions in their businesses. The A-D Line is more representative of smaller capitalization stocks, in contrast to the price indexes, most of which are much more representative of the very largest capitalization stocks. So, most of the time, relative strength of the A-D Line coincides with strength in smaller capitalization stocks relative to the largest capitalization stocks. The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio is moderately higher for 2009 but has lost some momentum short term, since 6/5/09.
A confluence of cycles in early July appears to be bringing trend change:
On 7/1/09, Uranus turned retrograde.
On 7/2/09, a Gann number cycle hit: 90 weeks (90 is 1/4 of a 360 degree cycle) from the 10/11/07 top.
On 7/2/09, a Fibonacci cycle hit: 55 days from the 5/8/09 high.
On 7/2/09, Venus squares Neptune, Mercury trines Neptune, Venus squares Jupiter, Mercury trines Jupiter, Mercury squares Uranus.
On 7/4/09, a Gann number cycle hits: 120 days (1/3 of a 360 degree cycle) from the 3/6/09 low.
On 7/4/09, Mercury opposes Pluto.
On 7/5/09, a Fibonacci number cycle hits: from the all-time high on 10/11/2007 to the low on 3/6/2009, the S&P 500 fell for 512 days. (512 is the 9th doubling of 1.) Applying a Fibonacci ratio of 0.236 times 512 equals 121, and 121 days from the 3/6/2009 low is 7/5/09. 121 is also the square of 11.
On 7/6/09, Mars squares Neptune.
On 7/7/09, Mars sextiles Uranus, the planet of action aspects the planet of change.
On 7/7/09, a Full Moon with a Lunar Eclipse.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1,406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1,381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 drop
1,366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1,335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1,313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1,274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1,255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1,238.807, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1,228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 drop
1,220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1,121.44, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2007-2009 drop
1,077.08, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
1,044.31, high of 10/14/2008
1,014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 drop
1007.78, Gann 37.5% of 2007-2009 drop
1,007.51, high of 11/4/2008
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.85, high of 1/6/2009
941.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of June 2009 range
935.66, low of 6/12/2009
931.92, high of 7/1/2009
930.20, Fibonacci 61.8% of June 2009 range
930.17, high of 5/8/2009
930.01, high of 6/30/2009
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
919.32, low of 6/30/2009
888.86, low of 6/23/2009
883.87, Gann 75.0% of 2009 range
881.46, low of 5/26/2009
879.61, low of 5/21/2009
878.94, low of 5/15/2009
877.86, high of 1/28/2009
877.52, close of 5/1/2009
875.63, high of 4/17/2009
875.01, high of 2/9/2009
871.80, high of 4/24/2009
866.10, low of 5/1/2009
847.69, Gann 62.5% of 2009 range
847.12, low of 4/28/2009
845.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009 range
826.83, low of 4/21/2009
811.51, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2009 range
814.53, low of 4/7/2009
813.62, high of 4/1/2009
779.81, low of 3/30/2009
777.36, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009 range
775.33, Gann 37.5% of 2009 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
665.23, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2002-2007 upmove
602.07, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1,576.09 high
Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.74% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
5.45% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
4.87% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
4.55% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
3.02% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2.74% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.40% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.11% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.49% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.33% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.23% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.39% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.55% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.65% 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.87% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.87% Semiconductor H, SMH
-0.94% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.99% 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.23% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.46% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.49% Nanotech Lux, PXN
-1.51% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.58% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.71% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.74% Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.99% Semiconductors, PSI
-2.03% Technology GS, IGM
-2.06% Insurance, PIC
-2.06% Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.06% Internet Architecture H, IAH
-2.07% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.10% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.11% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-2.12% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.13% Austria Index, EWO
-2.15% Telecom H, TTH
-2.16% Canada Index, EWC
-2.19% Software, IGV
-2.20% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-2.20% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.22% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.23% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.24% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-2.24% Technology Global, IXN
-2.25% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-2.25% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-2.25% Software H, SWH
-2.26% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-2.28% Materials VIPERs, VAW
-2.30% Healthcare DJ, IYH
-2.32% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.33% Technology MS sT, MTK
-2.36% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.37% Telecommunications Global, IXP
-2.37% Software, PSJ
-2.39% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.40% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-2.40% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.40% Growth Large Cap, ELG
-2.41% Spain Index, EWP
-2.41% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-2.42% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-2.43% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-2.43% Utilities, PUI
-2.44% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.44% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-2.45% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-2.45% Global Titans, DGT
-2.48% Biotech H, BBH
-2.48% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-2.49% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-2.50% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.50% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-2.51% Dividend International, PID
-2.51% Networking, IGN
-2.52% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.52% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-2.54% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-2.56% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-2.57% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.59% Internet H, HHH
-2.59% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.60% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-2.61% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-2.61% Dividend Leaders, FDL
-2.61% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.62% Food & Beverage, PBJ
-2.62% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.64% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.65% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.65% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.66% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.70% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.72% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.72% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-2.72% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.73% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.74% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.74% Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.74% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-2.75% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.75% Global 100, IOO
-2.76% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-2.76% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.76% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.77% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-2.77% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-2.78% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.81% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-2.83% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-2.84% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.84% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-2.84% Utilities DJ, IDU
-2.85% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-2.85% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-2.85% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.85% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.86% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.87% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.88% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.88% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.89% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.90% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.91% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.92% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.94% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.94% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-2.95% Retail H, RTH
-2.96% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-2.97% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-2.98% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-2.99% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-2.99% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-3.00% Value VIPERs, VTV
-3.00% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-3.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-3.01% Utilities H, UTH
-3.01% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-3.03% Italy Index, EWI
-3.03% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-3.04% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-3.06% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.07% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.07% MidCap VIPERs, VO
-3.08% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-3.09% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-3.09% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-3.11% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.11% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.12% Energy Global, IXC
-3.13% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-3.14% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.15% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-3.15% France Index, EWQ
-3.17% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-3.17% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-3.18% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-3.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-3.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-3.20% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-3.24% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.25% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-3.28% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-3.30% Biotech & Genome, PBE
-3.31% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.32% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.32% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-3.34% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-3.35% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
-3.35% Bank Regional H, RKH
-3.35% MidCap Russell, IWR
-3.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-3.37% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-3.38% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.39% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-3.41% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.42% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-3.45% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.45% Building & Construction, PKB
-3.46% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.46% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.48% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.52% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-3.54% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-3.54% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-3.56% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-3.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.64% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.65% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-3.71% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-3.76% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.82% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-3.83% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.84% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-3.85% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-3.85% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-3.85% Australia Index, EWA
-3.87% Retail, PMR
-3.87% Energy DJ, IYE
-3.90% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-3.90% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-3.92% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-3.92% Germany Index, EWG
-3.92% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-4.00% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-4.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
-4.02% Water Resources, PHO
-4.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-4.23% Value S&P 500, RPV
-4.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-4.30% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-4.38% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-4.55% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-4.67% Oil & Gas, PXJ
-4.78% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-4.87% Oil Services H, OIH
-4.98% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-5.22% Sweden Index, EWD
-5.29% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-5.37% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-5.37% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-5.56% Internet B2B H, BHH
-5.68% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 very significantly since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2009
4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 104 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 India Earnings WTree, EPI
99 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
99 Software, PSJ
98 China 25 iS, FXI
98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
97 Networking, IGN
97 South Africa Index, EZA
96 Financial Preferred, PGF
96 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2009
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 235 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 235 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 India Earnings WTree, EPI
99 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
99 Software, PSJ
98 China 25 iS, FXI
98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
97 Networking, IGN
97 South Africa Index, EZA
96 Financial Preferred, PGF
96 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
95 Technology MS sT, MTK
95 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 Technology DJ US, IYW
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
93 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Internet Architecture H, IAH
92 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
92 Software H, SWH
91 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
91 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
91 Bond, Corp, LQD
90 Technology GS, IGM
90 Biotech H, BBH
89 Emerging Markets, EEM
89 Software, IGV
89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
88 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
88 Internet H, HHH
87 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
87 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
86 Taiwan Index, EWT
86 Technology Global, IXN
86 Semiconductor H, SMH
85 Brazil Index, EWZ
85 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
84 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
84 Technology SPDR, XLK
83 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
83 Bond, TIPS, TIP
83 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
82 Retail, PMR
82 Spain Index, EWP
81 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
80 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
80 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
80 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
79 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
79 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
78 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
78 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
77 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
77 Internet B2B H, BHH
77 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
76 Canada Index, EWC
76 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
75 Japan Index, EWJ
75 Semiconductors, PSI
74 Growth S&P 500, RPG
74 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
74 Short 100% S&P 500, SH
73 Food & Beverage, PBJ
73 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
72 South Korea Index, EWY
72 Silver Trust iS, SLV
71 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
71 Healthcare DJ, IYH
71 Sweden Index, EWD
70 Mexico Index, EWW
70 Pharmaceutical H, PPH
69 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
69 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
69 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
68 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
68 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
67 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
67 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
66 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
66 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
66 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
65 Health Care SPDR, XLV
65 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
64 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
64 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
63 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
63 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
63 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
62 Growth VIPERs, VUG
62 Switzerland Index, EWL
61 Growth Large Cap, ELG
61 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
60 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
60 Biotech SPDR, XBI
60 Retail H, RTH
59 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
59 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
58 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
58 Healthcare Global, IXJ
57 Australia Index, EWA
57 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
57 Water Resources, PHO
56 Microcap Russell, IWC
56 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
55 Nanotech Lux, PXN
55 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
54 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
54 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
54 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
53 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
53 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
52 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
52 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
51 Biotech & Genome, PBE
51 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
51 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
50 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
50 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
49 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
49 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
49 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
48 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
48 MidCap Russell, IWR
47 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
47 EAFE Index, EFA
46 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
46 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
46 Dividend Leaders, FDL
45 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
45 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
44 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
44 Dividend International, PID
43 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
43 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
43 Utilities, PUI
42 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
42 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
41 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
41 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
40 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
40 Telecommunications Global, IXP
40 MidCap VIPERs, VO
39 Value MidCap iS M, JKI
39 Dividend SPDR, SDY
38 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
38 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
37 Global Titans, DGT
37 Global 100, IOO
37 Utilities DJ, IDU
36 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
36 United Kingdom Index, EWU
35 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
35 Utilities SPDR, XLU
34 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
34 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
34 Aerospace & Defense, PPA
33 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
33 Utilities H, UTH
32 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
32 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
31 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
31 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
31 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
30 Telecom H, TTH
30 European VIPERs, VGK
29 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
29 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
29 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
28 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
28 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
27 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
27 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
26 Energy Global, IXC
26 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
26 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
25 Insurance, PIC
25 Value S&P 500, RPV
24 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
24 Materials SPDR, XLB
23 France Index, EWQ
23 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
23 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
22 Building & Construction, PKB
22 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
21 EMU Europe Index, EZU
21 Materials VIPERs, VAW
20 Value VIPERs, VTV
20 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
20 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
19 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
19 Netherlands Index, EWN
18 Austria Index, EWO
18 Italy Index, EWI
17 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
17 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
17 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
16 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
16 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
15 Germany Index, EWG
15 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
14 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
14 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
14 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
13 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
13 Belgium Index, EWK
12 Energy DJ, IYE
12 Industrials VIPERs, VIS
11 Commodity Tracking, DBC
11 Energy VIPERs, VDE
11 Industrial SPDR, XLI
10 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
10 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
9 Energy SPDR, XLE
9 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
9 Financial Services DJ, IYG
8 Bank Regional H, RKH
8 Oil Services H, OIH
7 Financials VIPERs, VFH
7 Financial DJ US, IYF
6 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
6 Financial SPDR, XLF
6 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
5 Oil & Gas, PXJ
5 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
4 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
4 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
3 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
3 REIT Wilshire, RWR
3 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
0 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs
As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Dow Theory Analysis
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How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
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Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is senior investment strategist at TraderPlanet.com, TradingEducation.com, and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of years. Mr. Colby has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (www.mtaeducationalfoundation.org/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools.
"Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com
--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
Please click here to view this article.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.
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Past daily update archives are online. Please click here, scroll to the bottom of the linked page,
and click on any past date.
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
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Hedge Funds Under Pressure in 2008
"The financial crisis that crippled mortgage lenders, shut down leveraged buyouts and ended the era of independent investment banks is bearing down on the $1.9 trillion hedge-fund industry. Managers are bracing for a surge in client withdrawals after average returns fell 8 percent through Sept. 19 [2008], the worst first nine months of a year since Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. started tracking the data in 1990. Investment gains are being squeezed by higher bank lending rates, and regulators are now clamping down on short selling, undermining hedge-fund managers' trading strategies." -- Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYMbQvrlfUe4&refer=exclusive
Click here for a graph of a diversified futures system simulated performance.
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For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
Please click here to contact Colby directly.
Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2009
Global Markets
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Major Trend Rank
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM
99 SOYBEANS, S
97 China 25 iS, FXI
96 FEEDER CATTLE, FC
95 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD
93 Malaysia Index, EWM
92 GOLD 100 CMX, GC
91 Hong Kong Index, EWH
89 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
88 Singapore Index, EWS
87 SWISS FRANC, SF
86 JAPANESE YEN, JY
84 Bond, Corp, LQD
83 Emerging Markets, EEM
82 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK
80 BRITISH POUND, BP
79 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
78 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
76 Taiwan Index, EWT
75 Semiconductor H, SMH
74 Brazil Index, EWZ
72 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
71 Technology SPDR, XLK
70 Bond, TIPS, TIP
68 Latin Am 40, ILF
67 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD
66 LUMBER, LB
64 COPPER CMX H/G, HG
63 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
62 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
61 Canada Index, EWC
59 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY
58 Japan Index, EWJ
57 LIVE CATTLE, LC
55 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI
54 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL
53 US T-Bonds, US
51 South Korea Index, EWY
50 Silver Trust iS, SLV
49 RAPESEED, RS
47 Mexico Index, EWW
46 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
45 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
43 Health Care SPDR, XLV
42 LIVE HOGS, LH
41 Biotech SPDR, XBI
39 Retail H, RTH
38 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
37 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
36 Consumer D. SPDR, XLY
34 EAFE Index, EFA
33 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI
32 Utilities SPDR, XLU
30 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
29 S&P 500 INDEX, SP
28 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
26 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
25 Materials SPDR, XLB
24 France Index, EWQ
22 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
21 Austria Index, EWO
20 HEATING OIL, HO
18 Germany Index, EWG
17 SOYBEAN OIL, BO
16 Belgium Index, EWK
14 Commodity Tracking, DBC
13 Industrial SPDR, XLI
12 Energy SPDR, XLE
11 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
9 Oil Services H, OIH
8 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
7 Financial SPDR, XLF
5 CORN, C
4 WHEAT, W
3 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB
0 NATURAL GAS, NG
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