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U.S. Stock Market Update


For Week of July 28, 2014, to August 1, 2014


Stocks Are Priced Based On High Hopes

Preview from my weekly report*

IMF Cut 2014 U.S. Growth Forecast to 1.7%, down from 2.0%. The IMF warned that markets may not be realistically pricing in risks that the economy might recover at a slower pace than currently forecast by the consensus of economists. Markets appear to be assuming low levels of volatility and a low and narrow band for future monetary policy. Such assumptions seem out of line with fundamentals. If the economy doesn't evolve in line with current forecasts, "there will have to be a repricing at that point and that might be destructive," according to Nigel Chalk, deputy director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, as reported by Dow Jones Newswires.

A research paper published by the Federal Reserve in 2011 suggested that a reasonable estimate of the U.S. economy’s recessionary “stall speed” was about 2%, which is higher than the latest IMF forecast of 1.7%. In addition, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) predicts more frequent recessions for the advanced economies than seen in past decades. It has been 5 years since the end of the 2008-2009 recession and, in view of the long history of periodic economic cycles, another recession is due any time now. And when the next recession hits, overextended borrowers (whose numbers are large and growing) may be unable to pay on their loans, and debt defaults could mushroom, leading to general systemic financial distress.

Technically, sentiment indicators have been off the charts, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.

Stock market investors have ignored all challenges to a sustainable upside trend, including news of disappointing economic performance, obviously rising geopolitical risks, technical caution flags, and warnings by thoughtful analysts who are increasingly concerned that investors' complacency might be disconnected from underlying economic fundamentals. How much longer before investors wake up?

It is only prudent to be prepared for foreseeable risks.
...
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
click here.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my
Money Management Rules.

This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.

MetaStock Software. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 21, 2014.


9.6-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds

Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 117 percentage points over a 9.6 years period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


Simulated weekly performance
of my Top 10 ETFs

As shown below, my Top 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 over a period of nearly 10 years, from August, 2004, to March, 2014, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

To see my current rankings of hundreds of ETFs, with updated performance data, plus extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report -- click here.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.

Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11
2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11
2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77
3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78
3/12/10 , 104.70 , 217.95
3/19/10 , 105.60 , 216.72
3/26/10 , 106.21 , 218.54
4/1/10 , 107.26 , 221.41
4/9/10 , 108.74 , 226.29
4/16/10 , 108.54 , 221.56
4/23/10 , 110.83 , 227.97
4/30/10 , 108.04 , 220.60
5/7/10 , 101.14 , 200.18
5/14/10 , 103.40 , 207.57
5/21/10 , 99.03 , 194.24
5/28/10 , 99.19 , 198.39
6/4/10 , 96.95 , 189.53
6/11/10 , 99.39 , 198.22
6/18/10 , 101.74 , 204.88
6/25/10 , 98.03 , 200.18
7/2/10 , 93.10 , 191.66
7/9/10 , 98.14 , 196.67
7/16/10 , 96.95 , 193.62
7/23/10 , 100.39 , 200.03
7/30/10 , 100.30 , 203.07
8/6/10 , 102.12 , 205.67
8/13/10 , 98.26 , 199.30
8/20/10 , 97.57 , 202.81
8/27/10 , 96.93 , 203.20
9/3/10 , 100.56 , 209.21
9/10/10 , 101.02 , 208.86
9/17/10 , 102.48 , 213.36
9/24/10 , 104.58 , 217.65
10/1/10 , 104.36 , 223.19
10/8/10 , 106.08 , 226.22
10/15/10 , 107.09 , 229.40
10/22/10 , 107.71 , 227.62
10/29/10 , 107.73 , 227.75
11/5/10 , 111.61 , 239.24
11/12/10 , 109.18 , 231.09
11/19/10 , 109.23 , 232.80
11/26/10 , 108.29 , 225.87
12/3/10 , 111.50 , 236.59
12/10/10 , 112.93 , 236.79
12/23/10 , 114.42 , 236.51
12/31/10 , 114.50 , 237.96
1/7/11 , 115.76 , 232.37
1/14/11 , 117.74 , 237.13
1/21/11 , 116.84 , 227.91
1/28/11 , 116.21 , 231.01
2/4/11 , 119.35 , 239.79
2/11/11 , 121.01 , 242.73
2/18/11 , 122.28 , 250.91
2/25/11 , 120.17 , 250.04
3/4/11 , 120.28 , 255.93
3/11/11 , 118.75 , 245.10
3/18/11 , 116.47 , 243.54
3/25/11 , 119.62 , 255.41
4/8/11 , 120.92 , 264.69
4/15/11 , 120.15 , 258.72
4/22/11 , 121.76 , 266.10
4/29/11 , 124.15 , 268.62
5/6/11 , 122.02 , 244.58
5/13/11 , 121.80 , 244.21
5/20/11 , 121.39 , 243.32
5/27/11 , 121.19 , 246.94
6/3/11 , 118.37 , 241.12
6/10/11 , 115.72 , 234.09
6/17/11 , 115.76 , 231.74
6/24/11 , 115.49 , 228.23
7/1/11 , 121.97 , 237.37
7/8/11 , 122.35 , 242.19
7/15/11 , 119.83 , 238.98
7/22/11 , 122.46 , 244.55
7/29/11 , 117.66 , 238.55
8/5/11 , 109.20 , 221.59
8/12/11 , 107.33 , 225.90
8/19/11 , 102.29 , 231.88
8/26/11 , 107.14 , 230.49
9/2/11 , 106.88 , 235.57
9/9/11 , 105.09 , 232.44
9/16/11 , 110.71 , 227.47
9/23/11 , 103.47 , 214.72
9/30/11 , 103.01 , 214.24
10/7/11 , 105.20 , 212.76
10/14/11 , 111.49 , 213.59
10/21/11 , 112.74 , 212.78
10/28/11 , 117.00 , 215.86
11/4/11 , 114.10 , 214.48
11/11/11 , 115.07 , 215.14
11/18/11 , 110.68 , 208.51
11/25/11 , 105.49 , 204.82
12/2/11 , 113.29 , 206.35
12/9/11 , 114.28 , 206.03
12/16/11 , 111.04 , 200.66
12/23/11 , 115.20 , 203.66
12/30/11 , 114.50 , 203.90
1/6/12 , 116.34 , 203.53
1/13/12 , 117.37 , 205.03
1/20/12 , 119.76 , 207.08
1/27/12 , 119.85 , 209.86
2/3/12 , 122.45 , 215.95
2/10/12 , 122.24 , 211.46
2/17/12 , 123.93 , 214.62
2/24/12 , 124.34 , 215.28
3/2/12 , 124.70 , 214.02
3/9/12 , 124.81 , 215.31
3/16/12 , 127.84 , 220.00
3/23/12 , 127.20 , 220.27
3/30/12 , 128.24 , 221.83
4/6/12 , 127.29 , 220.83
4/13/12 , 124.76 , 215.70
4/20/12 , 125.51 , 215.05
4/27/12 , 127.77 , 221.58
5/4/12 , 124.65 , 216.41
5/11/12 , 123.22 , 216.43
5/18/12 , 117.92 , 205.05
5/25/12 , 119.98 , 208.96
6/1/12 , 116.36 , 204.06
6/8/12 , 120.70 , 206.20
6/15/12 , 122.26 , 207.12
6/22/12 , 121.55 , 206.01
6/29/12 , 124.02 , 210.46
7/6/12 , 123.34 , 212.87
7/13/12 , 123.53 , 213.98
7/20/12 , 124.06 , 213.44
7/27/12 , 126.19 , 215.44
8/3/12 , 126.64 , 213.50
8/10/12 , 128.00 , 211.61
8/17/12 , 129.12 , 214.47
8/24/12 , 128.48 , 213.81
8/31/12 , 128.06 , 213.72
9/7/12 , 130.92 , 217.70
9/14/12 , 133.45 , 222.03
9/21/12 , 132.94 , 222.40
9/28/12 , 131.17 , 218.05
10/5/12 , 133.01 , 221.92
10/12/12 , 130.07 , 216.30
10/19/12 , 130.49 , 218.22
10/26/12 , 128.55 , 220.17
11/2/12 , 128.76 , 222.53
11/9/12 , 125.63 , 217.56
11/16/12 , 123.81 , 214.43
11/23/12 , 128.30 , 219.12
11/30/12 , 128.94 , 220.55
12/7/12 , 129.11 , 221.82
12/14/12 , 128.70 , 224.71
12/21/12 , 130.21 , 226.35
12/28/12 , 127.69 , 224.88
1/4/13 , 133.52 , 232.32
1/11/13 , 134.02 , 234.19
1/18/13 , 135.29 , 237.08
1/25/13 , 136.84 , 240.77
2/1/13 , 137.77 , 241.70
2/8/13 , 138.20 , 236.86
2/15/13 , 138.37 , 239.33
2/22/13 , 137.99 , 237.70
3/1/13 , 138.23 , 237.07
3/8/13 , 141.23 , 243.97
3/15/13 , 142.09 , 245.89
3/22/13 , 141.75 , 241.28
3/29/13 , 142.87 , 243.60
4/5/13 , 141.42 , 237.43
4/12/13 , 144.66 , 242.90
4/19/13 , 141.60 , 237.97
4/26/13 , 144.06 , 242.77
5/3/13 , 146.99 , 246.15
5/10/13 , 148.74 , 250.11
5/17/13 , 151.82 , 254.82
5/24/13 , 150.19 , 250.60
5/31/13 , 148.47 , 245.05
6/7/13 , 149.62 , 243.36
6/14/13 , 148.11 , 239.94
6/21/13 , 144.98 , 233.03
6/28/13 , 146.24 , 236.48
7/5/13 , 148.58 , 242.31
7/12/13 , 152.97 , 250.80
7/19/13 , 154.06 , 254.09
7/26/13 , 154.02 , 254.02
8/2/13 , 155.66 , 256.52
8/9/13 , 154.00 , 252.35
8/16/13 , 150.76 , 246.69
8/23/13 , 151.45 , 251.09
8/30/13 , 148.67 , 244.79
9/6/13 , 150.70 , 251.98
9/13/13 , 153.68 , 257.69
9/20/13 , 155.68 , 261.89
9/27/13 , 154.03 , 263.36
10/4/13 , 153.91 , 266.44
10/11/13 , 155.07 , 264.51
10/18/13 , 158.83 , 272.63
10/25/13 , 160.22 , 270.75
11/1/13 , 160.39 , 265.22
11/8/13 , 161.21 , 265.19
11/15/13 , 163.72 , 270.77
11/22/13 , 164.32 , 271.16
11/29/13 , 164.41 , 275.08
12/6/13 , 164.35 , 271.50
12/13/13 , 161.64 , 266.19
12/20/13 , 165.55 , 273.93
12/27/13 , 167.65 , 278.31
1/3/14 , 166.74 , 277.71
1/10/14 , 167.74 , 282.34
1/17/14 , 167.41 , 284.45
1/24/14 , 163.00 , 274.28
1/31/14 , 162.30 , 271.68
2/7/14 , 163.61 , 271.65
2/14/14 , 167.40 , 280.00
2/21/14 , 167.18 , 283.73
2/28/14 , 169.29 , 287.96
3/7/14 , 170.99 , 294.23
3/14/14 , 167.63 , 285.56
3/21/14 , 169.93 , 286.75
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
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Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.

Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member of the MTA since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the MTA Educational Foundation (www.mtaef.org), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. Please click the following banner for information about the Market Technicians Association. The Market Technicians Association (MTA) is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States.

 
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)

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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."

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For information about
methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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