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U.S. Stock Market Update


For Week of September 29, 2014, to October 3, 2014


Fear of Deflation

Preview from my weekly report*

The S&P GSCI (formerly the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) is a benchmark price index of 24 commodity markets. It is heavily weighted toward energy, but it also includes agricultural, industrial metals, livestock, and precious metals prices. The S&P GSCI fell below its lows of the previous 2 years last week, thereby confirming a major downtrend. This shows that commodity prices are deflating.

The U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/26/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. A rising dollar makes commodities cheaper and is, therefore, deflationary.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 15 months on 9/26/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. This shows that bond investors are not anticipating an upswing in inflation anytime soon.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above back its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). U.S. Treasury Bonds benefit from a strong dollar, deflation, weakening economic conditions, portfolio shifts away from stocks, and global flights to safety.

The Russell 2000 Small Cap Stock Price Index ($RUT: 1,119.33) continues to demonstrate bearish divergences. The shorter 50-day simple moving average fell below the longer 200-day moving average a few days ago, for a "Dead Cross", which is a commonly accepted bearish sell signal. RUT has underperformed the broader stock market indexes since 3/4/14, and that unfavorable trend for small-capitalization stocks appears likely to continue.

A rising U.S. dollar deflates foreign currencies, thereby depressing foreign earnings of U.S. companies. A rising U.S. dollar makes U.S. goods and services less competitive in global markets, thereby depressing foreign sales and earnings of U.S. companies. A rising U.S. dollar and deflation makes it more difficult for companies to raise prices.

When we analyze the broad range of variables, it appears that the risks to this old bull market for stocks are significant. Technical indicators for the stock market have continued to diverge bearishly, and that means not all parts of the market are in gear and pulling together. Bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating. Geopolitical risks appeared to lessen for a time in September but have not actually gone away and could flare up again at any time. Economic performance has been hard to read of late, fluctuating up and down, but generally the U.S. economy has been disappointingly sluggish since the recession ended in 2009, and there is growing worry about secular stagnation of the global economy. Some thoughtful analysts are increasingly concerned that investors' bullish enthusiasm might be disconnected from underlying economic fundamentals. Despite it all, stock market sentiment indicators remain near excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish).

None of these considerations have stopped the 5.5-year stock market uptrend for long--so far at least. That doesn't mean that they can't or won't at some point. Still, it is possible that the bullish majority of stock market investors will continue to focus on upside reward while dismissing downside risk, just as they have been doing for most of the past 5.5 years. There remains a general feeling that the Fed has investors' backs--that the Fed will continue to print enough money to promote economic growth and ward off financial troubles. Many seem to believe that stocks can continue to rise as long as short-term interest rates stay down near zero. Few seem to doubt the Fed's willingness and ability to forestall the down phase of the cycle.

History shows that cycles do occur, however, and that government policy makers never have been successful in their efforts to prevent natural market and economic cycles from unfolding. There have been 9 recessions in the past 50 years, averaging 1 every 5.6 years, and there have been 10 bear markets of -20% or greater for stocks, averaging 1 every 5.0 years. So, 5.5 years is a long time for a bull market to persist, and historical averages suggest another -20% bear market at any time now would not come as a surprise. Economic and market cycles are natural and normal, but massive quantitative easing and zero interest rates are not normal and cannot last.
...
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
click here.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my
Money Management Rules.

This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.

MetaStock Software. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 21, 2014.


9.6-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds

Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 117 percentage points over a 9.6 years period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


Simulated weekly performance
of my Top 10 ETFs

As shown below, my Top 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 over a period of nearly 10 years, from August, 2004, to March, 2014, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

To see my current rankings of hundreds of ETFs, with updated performance data, plus extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report -- click here.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.

Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11
2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11
2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77
3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78
3/12/10 , 104.70 , 217.95
3/19/10 , 105.60 , 216.72
3/26/10 , 106.21 , 218.54
4/1/10 , 107.26 , 221.41
4/9/10 , 108.74 , 226.29
4/16/10 , 108.54 , 221.56
4/23/10 , 110.83 , 227.97
4/30/10 , 108.04 , 220.60
5/7/10 , 101.14 , 200.18
5/14/10 , 103.40 , 207.57
5/21/10 , 99.03 , 194.24
5/28/10 , 99.19 , 198.39
6/4/10 , 96.95 , 189.53
6/11/10 , 99.39 , 198.22
6/18/10 , 101.74 , 204.88
6/25/10 , 98.03 , 200.18
7/2/10 , 93.10 , 191.66
7/9/10 , 98.14 , 196.67
7/16/10 , 96.95 , 193.62
7/23/10 , 100.39 , 200.03
7/30/10 , 100.30 , 203.07
8/6/10 , 102.12 , 205.67
8/13/10 , 98.26 , 199.30
8/20/10 , 97.57 , 202.81
8/27/10 , 96.93 , 203.20
9/3/10 , 100.56 , 209.21
9/10/10 , 101.02 , 208.86
9/17/10 , 102.48 , 213.36
9/24/10 , 104.58 , 217.65
10/1/10 , 104.36 , 223.19
10/8/10 , 106.08 , 226.22
10/15/10 , 107.09 , 229.40
10/22/10 , 107.71 , 227.62
10/29/10 , 107.73 , 227.75
11/5/10 , 111.61 , 239.24
11/12/10 , 109.18 , 231.09
11/19/10 , 109.23 , 232.80
11/26/10 , 108.29 , 225.87
12/3/10 , 111.50 , 236.59
12/10/10 , 112.93 , 236.79
12/23/10 , 114.42 , 236.51
12/31/10 , 114.50 , 237.96
1/7/11 , 115.76 , 232.37
1/14/11 , 117.74 , 237.13
1/21/11 , 116.84 , 227.91
1/28/11 , 116.21 , 231.01
2/4/11 , 119.35 , 239.79
2/11/11 , 121.01 , 242.73
2/18/11 , 122.28 , 250.91
2/25/11 , 120.17 , 250.04
3/4/11 , 120.28 , 255.93
3/11/11 , 118.75 , 245.10
3/18/11 , 116.47 , 243.54
3/25/11 , 119.62 , 255.41
4/8/11 , 120.92 , 264.69
4/15/11 , 120.15 , 258.72
4/22/11 , 121.76 , 266.10
4/29/11 , 124.15 , 268.62
5/6/11 , 122.02 , 244.58
5/13/11 , 121.80 , 244.21
5/20/11 , 121.39 , 243.32
5/27/11 , 121.19 , 246.94
6/3/11 , 118.37 , 241.12
6/10/11 , 115.72 , 234.09
6/17/11 , 115.76 , 231.74
6/24/11 , 115.49 , 228.23
7/1/11 , 121.97 , 237.37
7/8/11 , 122.35 , 242.19
7/15/11 , 119.83 , 238.98
7/22/11 , 122.46 , 244.55
7/29/11 , 117.66 , 238.55
8/5/11 , 109.20 , 221.59
8/12/11 , 107.33 , 225.90
8/19/11 , 102.29 , 231.88
8/26/11 , 107.14 , 230.49
9/2/11 , 106.88 , 235.57
9/9/11 , 105.09 , 232.44
9/16/11 , 110.71 , 227.47
9/23/11 , 103.47 , 214.72
9/30/11 , 103.01 , 214.24
10/7/11 , 105.20 , 212.76
10/14/11 , 111.49 , 213.59
10/21/11 , 112.74 , 212.78
10/28/11 , 117.00 , 215.86
11/4/11 , 114.10 , 214.48
11/11/11 , 115.07 , 215.14
11/18/11 , 110.68 , 208.51
11/25/11 , 105.49 , 204.82
12/2/11 , 113.29 , 206.35
12/9/11 , 114.28 , 206.03
12/16/11 , 111.04 , 200.66
12/23/11 , 115.20 , 203.66
12/30/11 , 114.50 , 203.90
1/6/12 , 116.34 , 203.53
1/13/12 , 117.37 , 205.03
1/20/12 , 119.76 , 207.08
1/27/12 , 119.85 , 209.86
2/3/12 , 122.45 , 215.95
2/10/12 , 122.24 , 211.46
2/17/12 , 123.93 , 214.62
2/24/12 , 124.34 , 215.28
3/2/12 , 124.70 , 214.02
3/9/12 , 124.81 , 215.31
3/16/12 , 127.84 , 220.00
3/23/12 , 127.20 , 220.27
3/30/12 , 128.24 , 221.83
4/6/12 , 127.29 , 220.83
4/13/12 , 124.76 , 215.70
4/20/12 , 125.51 , 215.05
4/27/12 , 127.77 , 221.58
5/4/12 , 124.65 , 216.41
5/11/12 , 123.22 , 216.43
5/18/12 , 117.92 , 205.05
5/25/12 , 119.98 , 208.96
6/1/12 , 116.36 , 204.06
6/8/12 , 120.70 , 206.20
6/15/12 , 122.26 , 207.12
6/22/12 , 121.55 , 206.01
6/29/12 , 124.02 , 210.46
7/6/12 , 123.34 , 212.87
7/13/12 , 123.53 , 213.98
7/20/12 , 124.06 , 213.44
7/27/12 , 126.19 , 215.44
8/3/12 , 126.64 , 213.50
8/10/12 , 128.00 , 211.61
8/17/12 , 129.12 , 214.47
8/24/12 , 128.48 , 213.81
8/31/12 , 128.06 , 213.72
9/7/12 , 130.92 , 217.70
9/14/12 , 133.45 , 222.03
9/21/12 , 132.94 , 222.40
9/28/12 , 131.17 , 218.05
10/5/12 , 133.01 , 221.92
10/12/12 , 130.07 , 216.30
10/19/12 , 130.49 , 218.22
10/26/12 , 128.55 , 220.17
11/2/12 , 128.76 , 222.53
11/9/12 , 125.63 , 217.56
11/16/12 , 123.81 , 214.43
11/23/12 , 128.30 , 219.12
11/30/12 , 128.94 , 220.55
12/7/12 , 129.11 , 221.82
12/14/12 , 128.70 , 224.71
12/21/12 , 130.21 , 226.35
12/28/12 , 127.69 , 224.88
1/4/13 , 133.52 , 232.32
1/11/13 , 134.02 , 234.19
1/18/13 , 135.29 , 237.08
1/25/13 , 136.84 , 240.77
2/1/13 , 137.77 , 241.70
2/8/13 , 138.20 , 236.86
2/15/13 , 138.37 , 239.33
2/22/13 , 137.99 , 237.70
3/1/13 , 138.23 , 237.07
3/8/13 , 141.23 , 243.97
3/15/13 , 142.09 , 245.89
3/22/13 , 141.75 , 241.28
3/29/13 , 142.87 , 243.60
4/5/13 , 141.42 , 237.43
4/12/13 , 144.66 , 242.90
4/19/13 , 141.60 , 237.97
4/26/13 , 144.06 , 242.77
5/3/13 , 146.99 , 246.15
5/10/13 , 148.74 , 250.11
5/17/13 , 151.82 , 254.82
5/24/13 , 150.19 , 250.60
5/31/13 , 148.47 , 245.05
6/7/13 , 149.62 , 243.36
6/14/13 , 148.11 , 239.94
6/21/13 , 144.98 , 233.03
6/28/13 , 146.24 , 236.48
7/5/13 , 148.58 , 242.31
7/12/13 , 152.97 , 250.80
7/19/13 , 154.06 , 254.09
7/26/13 , 154.02 , 254.02
8/2/13 , 155.66 , 256.52
8/9/13 , 154.00 , 252.35
8/16/13 , 150.76 , 246.69
8/23/13 , 151.45 , 251.09
8/30/13 , 148.67 , 244.79
9/6/13 , 150.70 , 251.98
9/13/13 , 153.68 , 257.69
9/20/13 , 155.68 , 261.89
9/27/13 , 154.03 , 263.36
10/4/13 , 153.91 , 266.44
10/11/13 , 155.07 , 264.51
10/18/13 , 158.83 , 272.63
10/25/13 , 160.22 , 270.75
11/1/13 , 160.39 , 265.22
11/8/13 , 161.21 , 265.19
11/15/13 , 163.72 , 270.77
11/22/13 , 164.32 , 271.16
11/29/13 , 164.41 , 275.08
12/6/13 , 164.35 , 271.50
12/13/13 , 161.64 , 266.19
12/20/13 , 165.55 , 273.93
12/27/13 , 167.65 , 278.31
1/3/14 , 166.74 , 277.71
1/10/14 , 167.74 , 282.34
1/17/14 , 167.41 , 284.45
1/24/14 , 163.00 , 274.28
1/31/14 , 162.30 , 271.68
2/7/14 , 163.61 , 271.65
2/14/14 , 167.40 , 280.00
2/21/14 , 167.18 , 283.73
2/28/14 , 169.29 , 287.96
3/7/14 , 170.99 , 294.23
3/14/14 , 167.63 , 285.56
3/21/14 , 169.93 , 286.75
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
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Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.

Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member of the MTA since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the MTA Educational Foundation (www.mtaef.org), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. Please click the following banner for information about the Market Technicians Association. The Market Technicians Association (MTA) is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States.

 
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)

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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."

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For information about
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