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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
Posted Thursday, September 2, 2010, at 11:55 p.m. ET
Summary: stocks rose again, but trading volume fell significantly, thereby denying confirmation of price strength.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 2-month high on 9/2/10 and remains bullish.
Utilities stock sector absolute price rose to a new 8-month high on 9/2/10 and remains bullish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 9/2/10. Technically, the Ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA--although the SMAs appear to be converging toward a possible bullish crossover in weeks ahead.
Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to another new 3-month low on 9/2/10 and remains neutral.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 9/2/10 and is bullish. Longer term, RSP/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed above its 200 SMA on 9/2/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 9/2/10 and is bullish.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 4-month highs on 9/2/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,090.10) rose 9.81 points or 0.91% on Thursday 9/2/10. Trading volume fell significantly, thereby denying confirmation of price strength. SPX turned neutral by crossing above its 50-day SMA but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The market may need to demonstrate further upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. It still may be a “show me” market. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Further consolidation seems likely in days ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.24% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
1.46% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
2.31% , PMR , Retail, PMR
1.00% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
9.84% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
7.73% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
8.05% , JWN , NORDSTROM
1.94% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
5.72% , TER , TERADYNE
0.73% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
3.81% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
5.57% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
3.46% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
6.30% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
4.01% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
1.20% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
2.42% , SYK , STRYKER
4.14% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
2.80% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
5.42% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
4.46% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
2.93% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
0.58% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
0.80% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
2.03% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.97% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
3.96% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.29% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
3.30% , LOW , LOWES
3.24% , HAS , HASBRO
3.76% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
4.83% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
6.00% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.99% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
1.55% , IGN , Networking, IGN
3.51% , DRI , DARDEN REST
1.92% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.59% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
3.79% , FAST , Fastenal Company
2.95% , AA , ALCOA
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.25% , APA , APACHE
-2.86% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.49% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.72% , PPL , PPL
-0.08% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-1.09% , PX , PRAXAIR
-1.64% , CI , CIGNA
-0.46% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-0.61% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.37% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.51% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.08% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.34% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-0.38% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.13% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.48% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.25% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.42% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 2-month high on 9/2/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10 and remains bullish, with the ratio above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU rose to a new 8-month high on 9/2/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 9/2/10. Technically, the Ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA--although the SMAs appear to be converging toward a possible bullish crossover in weeks ahead. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 9/1/10, turning bullish again. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to another new 3-month low on 9/2/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been mostly bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned mostly bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish—despite a 3.88% price jump on 9/1/10. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 9/1/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 9/2/10 and is bullish. Longer term, RSP/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed above its 200 SMA on 9/2/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. This Ratio has demonstrated underperformance of Small Caps since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, however, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 9/2/10 and is bullish. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract recovered most of its previous day’s loss on 9/1/10. Oil may be bearish: it has been heading down most days since making a high at 83.40 on 8/4/10. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Watch critical support around 70.76 and 70.35. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 8-week highs on 8/31/10, again confirming a significant uptrend. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8 and 1267.1.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 4-month highs on 9/2/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price surrendered most of the previous 2-day’s gains on 9/1/10, which by itself is not much of a clue. The bond set its highest daily close in 19-months on 8/31/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/26/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below 15-month lows on 8/24/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 8-day lows on 9/1/10. The short-term trend now appears to be bearish, while the Secondary intermediate-term trend appears uncertain…possibly bearish. Long term, USD may be consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 29.4% Bulls versus 37.7% Bears as of 9/1/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 0.78, down from 1.07 the previous week. This ratio is now at its lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,090.10) rose 9.81 points or 0.91% on Thursday 9/2/10. Trading volume fell significantly, thereby denying confirmation of price strength. SPX turned neutral by crossing above its 50-day SMA but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The market may need to demonstrate further upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. It still may be a “show me” market. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Further consolidation seems likely in days ahead.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1100.14, high of 8/17/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.97% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.17% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.03% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.86% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.70% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.69% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.64% Austria Index, EWO
1.64% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.59% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.58% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.55% Networking, IGN
1.51% France Index, EWQ
1.50% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.47% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.45% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.38% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.38% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.38% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.34% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.31% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.31% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.30% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.30% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.28% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.27% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.27% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.26% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.26% Italy Index, EWI
1.26% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.25% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.24% South Africa Index, EZA
1.22% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.22% Spain Index, EWP
1.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.21% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.12% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.11% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.10% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.10% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.09% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.08% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.05% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.05% Water Resources, PHO
1.04% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.04% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.04% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.03% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.02% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.02% China 25 iS, FXI
1.01% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.99% Belgium Index, EWK
0.98% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.98% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.98% Sweden Index, EWD
0.96% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.96% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.95% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.93% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.93% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.92% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.91% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.91% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.90% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.90% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.87% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.87% Mexico Index, EWW
0.86% Dividend International, PID
0.86% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.86% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.84% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.84% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.83% European VIPERs, VGK
0.83% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.83% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.83% Canada Index, EWC
0.82% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.82% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.81% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.81% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.78% Energy DJ, IYE
0.76% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.76% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.76% Energy Global, IXC
0.75% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.75% Germany Index, EWG
0.73% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.73% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.71% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.67% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.63% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.60% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.58% Global 100, IOO
0.57% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.56% EAFE Index, EFA
0.54% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.54% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.52% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.49% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.47% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.45% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.44% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.41% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.40% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.38% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.31% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.17% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.13% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.09% Australia Index, EWA
0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.05% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.04% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.04% South Korea Index, EWY
0.03% Russia MV, RSX
0.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.02% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.03% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.13% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.19% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.23% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.24% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.31% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.42% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.47% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.83% India PS, PIN
-1.06% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.47% Indonesia MV, IDX
Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 very significantly since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 27, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 106 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
93 Singapore Index, EWS
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 27, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
93 Singapore Index, EWS
92 REIT Wilshire, RWR
91 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
91 Financial Preferred, PGF
90 India Earnings WTree, EPI
89 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
89 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
88 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
87 South Africa Index, EZA
86 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
86 India PS, PIN
85 Bond, Corp, LQD
84 Hong Kong Index, EWH
84 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
83 Utilities SPDR, XLU
82 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
81 South Korea Index, EWY
81 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
80 Sweden Index, EWD
79 Emerging Markets, EEM
79 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
78 Taiwan Index, EWT
77 Latin Am 40, ILF
76 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
76 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
75 Brazil Index, EWZ
74 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
74 Bond, TIPS, TIP
73 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
72 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
71 Russia MV, RSX
71 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
70 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
69 Canada Index, EWC
69 Switzerland Index, EWL
68 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
67 Dividend SPDR, SDY
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
65 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
64 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
64 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
63 MidCap Russell, IWR
62 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
61 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
61 Mexico Index, EWW
60 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
59 Dividend International, PID
59 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
58 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
57 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
56 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
56 Materials SPDR, XLB
55 Industrial SPDR, XLI
54 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
54 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
53 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
52 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
51 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
51 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
50 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
49 Australia Index, EWA
49 United Kingdom Index, EWU
48 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
47 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
46 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
45 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
44 China 25 iS, FXI
44 Networking, IGN
43 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
42 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
41 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
41 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
40 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
39 Growth VIPERs, VUG
39 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
38 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
37 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
36 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
36 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
35 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
34 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
34 Technology SPDR, XLK
33 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
32 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
31 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
31 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
30 Value VIPERs, VTV
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
29 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
28 European VIPERs, VGK
27 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
26 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
26 Belgium Index, EWK
25 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
24 Technology DJ US, IYW
24 Biotech SPDR, XBI
23 Commodity Tracking, DBC
22 EAFE Index, EFA
21 Japan Index, EWJ
21 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
19 Global 100, IOO
18 Microcap Russell, IWC
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
16 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
16 Energy VIPERs, VDE
15 Netherlands Index, EWN
14 Germany Index, EWG
14 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
13 Energy SPDR, XLE
12 Financials VIPERs, VFH
11 Energy DJ, IYE
11 Financial DJ US, IYF
10 Austria Index, EWO
9 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
9 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
8 Financial SPDR, XLF
7 Energy Global, IXC
6 Water Resources, PHO
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
5 France Index, EWQ
4 Spain Index, EWP
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
3 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Italy Index, EWI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs
As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11
2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11
2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77
3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78
3/12/10 , 104.70 , 217.95
3/19/10 , 105.60 , 216.72
3/26/10 , 106.21 , 218.54
4/1/10 , 107.26 , 221.41
4/9/10 , 108.74 , 226.29
4/16/10 , 108.54 , 221.56
4/23/10 , 110.83 , 227.97
4/30/10 , 108.04 , 220.60
5/7/10 , 101.14 , 200.18
5/14/10 , 103.40 , 207.57
5/21/10 , 99.03 , 194.24
5/28/10 , 99.19 , 198.39
6/4/10 , 96.95 , 189.53
6/11/10 , 99.39 , 198.22
6/18/10 , 101.74 , 204.88
6/25/10 , 98.03 , 200.18
7/2/10 , 93.10 , 191.66
7/9/10 , 98.14 , 196.67
7/16/10 , 96.95 , 193.62
7/23/10 , 100.39 , 200.03
7/30/10 , 100.30 , 203.07
8/6/10 , 102.12 , 205.67
8/13/10 , 98.26 , 199.30
8/20/10 , 97.57 , 202.81
8/27/10 , 96.93 , 203.20
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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Dow Theory Analysis
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Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
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Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is senior investment strategist at TraderPlanet.com, TradingEducation.com, and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships.
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by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?"
by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.
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Past daily update archives are online. Please click here, scroll to the bottom of the linked page,
and click on any past date.
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
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Hedge Funds Underperformed in 2009
According to Reuters, hedge funds gained less than 20% in 2009, on average, thereby lagging the 24% gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. In 2008, clients reacted to the industry's worst-ever losses by pulling out a record $155 billion.
Click here for a graph of a diversified futures system simulated performance.
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For information about
methods
that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
Please click here to contact Colby directly.
Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 27, 2010.
Global Markets
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Major Trend Rank
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB
99 WHEAT, W
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 CORN, C
95 RAPESEED, RS
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
92 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI
91 COPPER CMX H/G, HG
89 GOLD 100 CMX, GC
88 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
87 FEEDER CATTLE, FC
86 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
84 Singapore Index, EWS
83 US T-Bonds, US
82 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
80 LIVE CATTLE, LC
79 JAPANESE YEN, JY
78 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
76 Bond, Corp, LQD
75 Hong Kong Index, EWH
74 SOYBEAN OIL, BO
72 Utilities SPDR, XLU
71 South Korea Index, EWY
70 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY
68 SWISS FRANC, SF
67 Emerging Markets, EEM
66 Taiwan Index, EWT
64 Latin Am 40, ILF
63 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD
62 Brazil Index, EWZ
61 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
59 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM
58 Bond, TIPS, TIP
57 SOYBEANS, S
55 LIVE HOGS, LH
54 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
53 Canada Index, EWC
51 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
50 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
49 HEATING OIL, HO
47 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
46 Mexico Index, EWW
45 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
43 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI
42 Materials SPDR, XLB
41 Industrial SPDR, XLI
39 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
38 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD
37 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
36 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
34 BRITISH POUND, BP
33 China 25 iS, FXI
32 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL
30 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
29 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
28 Technology SPDR, XLK
26 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
25 S&P 500 INDEX, SP
24 Belgium Index, EWK
22 Biotech SPDR, XBI
21 Commodity Tracking, DBC
20 EAFE Index, EFA
18 Japan Index, EWJ
17 Health Care SPDR, XLV
16 Retail H, RTH
14 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
13 Semiconductor H, SMH
12 Germany Index, EWG
11 Energy SPDR, XLE
9 Austria Index, EWO
8 LUMBER, LB
7 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
5 Financial SPDR, XLF
4 France Index, EWQ
3 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK
1 Oil Services H, OIH
0 NATURAL GAS, NG
