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U.S. Stock Market Update


For Week of October 20, 2014, to October 24, 2014


The Rapidly Shifting Emotions of Crowds

Preview from my weekly report*

The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®), also known as the "Fear Index", is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility, according to cboe.com.

VIX shot up from 12 to 31 over the past 4 weeks, indicating a mood shift from extreme bullish complacency to the most fear among short-term traders in nearly 3 years, as the chart shows. As stock prices stabilized and partially recovered over the past 2 trading days, VIX quickly fell from 31 to 22. Typically, short-term traders change their moods very rapidly. VIX reflects trader emotions in time frames measured in hours and days.

Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors reflects a medium-term measure of sentiment, over time frames measured in weeks and months. It currently offers a very different representation of investors feelings about the outlook for the U.S. stock market. As the chart shows, Advisory Service Sentiment has moderated only slightly in recent weeks and is still elevated. Historically, when Advisory Service Sentiment is at or above the upper black line, placed at 1.5 standard deviations above the 10-year average, the stock market has been vulnerable to downside price movement.

After its recent 4-week downside shakeout, the S&P 500 stock price index is still up 183% from its 2009 low at 666.79. In contrast to the bullish majority, the bearish minority considers the 5.6-year bull market to be over aged, over extended, and ripe for major trend reversal. Short term, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for the U.S. stock market for more than a century.
...
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
click here.

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Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my
Money Management Rules.

This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.

MetaStock Software. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 21, 2014.


9.6-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds

Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 117 percentage points over a 9.6 years period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).

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Simulated weekly performance
of my Top 10 ETFs

As shown below, my Top 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 over a period of nearly 10 years, from August, 2004, to March, 2014, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

To see my current rankings of hundreds of ETFs, with updated performance data, plus extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report -- click here.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.

Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11
2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11
2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77
3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78
3/12/10 , 104.70 , 217.95
3/19/10 , 105.60 , 216.72
3/26/10 , 106.21 , 218.54
4/1/10 , 107.26 , 221.41
4/9/10 , 108.74 , 226.29
4/16/10 , 108.54 , 221.56
4/23/10 , 110.83 , 227.97
4/30/10 , 108.04 , 220.60
5/7/10 , 101.14 , 200.18
5/14/10 , 103.40 , 207.57
5/21/10 , 99.03 , 194.24
5/28/10 , 99.19 , 198.39
6/4/10 , 96.95 , 189.53
6/11/10 , 99.39 , 198.22
6/18/10 , 101.74 , 204.88
6/25/10 , 98.03 , 200.18
7/2/10 , 93.10 , 191.66
7/9/10 , 98.14 , 196.67
7/16/10 , 96.95 , 193.62
7/23/10 , 100.39 , 200.03
7/30/10 , 100.30 , 203.07
8/6/10 , 102.12 , 205.67
8/13/10 , 98.26 , 199.30
8/20/10 , 97.57 , 202.81
8/27/10 , 96.93 , 203.20
9/3/10 , 100.56 , 209.21
9/10/10 , 101.02 , 208.86
9/17/10 , 102.48 , 213.36
9/24/10 , 104.58 , 217.65
10/1/10 , 104.36 , 223.19
10/8/10 , 106.08 , 226.22
10/15/10 , 107.09 , 229.40
10/22/10 , 107.71 , 227.62
10/29/10 , 107.73 , 227.75
11/5/10 , 111.61 , 239.24
11/12/10 , 109.18 , 231.09
11/19/10 , 109.23 , 232.80
11/26/10 , 108.29 , 225.87
12/3/10 , 111.50 , 236.59
12/10/10 , 112.93 , 236.79
12/23/10 , 114.42 , 236.51
12/31/10 , 114.50 , 237.96
1/7/11 , 115.76 , 232.37
1/14/11 , 117.74 , 237.13
1/21/11 , 116.84 , 227.91
1/28/11 , 116.21 , 231.01
2/4/11 , 119.35 , 239.79
2/11/11 , 121.01 , 242.73
2/18/11 , 122.28 , 250.91
2/25/11 , 120.17 , 250.04
3/4/11 , 120.28 , 255.93
3/11/11 , 118.75 , 245.10
3/18/11 , 116.47 , 243.54
3/25/11 , 119.62 , 255.41
4/8/11 , 120.92 , 264.69
4/15/11 , 120.15 , 258.72
4/22/11 , 121.76 , 266.10
4/29/11 , 124.15 , 268.62
5/6/11 , 122.02 , 244.58
5/13/11 , 121.80 , 244.21
5/20/11 , 121.39 , 243.32
5/27/11 , 121.19 , 246.94
6/3/11 , 118.37 , 241.12
6/10/11 , 115.72 , 234.09
6/17/11 , 115.76 , 231.74
6/24/11 , 115.49 , 228.23
7/1/11 , 121.97 , 237.37
7/8/11 , 122.35 , 242.19
7/15/11 , 119.83 , 238.98
7/22/11 , 122.46 , 244.55
7/29/11 , 117.66 , 238.55
8/5/11 , 109.20 , 221.59
8/12/11 , 107.33 , 225.90
8/19/11 , 102.29 , 231.88
8/26/11 , 107.14 , 230.49
9/2/11 , 106.88 , 235.57
9/9/11 , 105.09 , 232.44
9/16/11 , 110.71 , 227.47
9/23/11 , 103.47 , 214.72
9/30/11 , 103.01 , 214.24
10/7/11 , 105.20 , 212.76
10/14/11 , 111.49 , 213.59
10/21/11 , 112.74 , 212.78
10/28/11 , 117.00 , 215.86
11/4/11 , 114.10 , 214.48
11/11/11 , 115.07 , 215.14
11/18/11 , 110.68 , 208.51
11/25/11 , 105.49 , 204.82
12/2/11 , 113.29 , 206.35
12/9/11 , 114.28 , 206.03
12/16/11 , 111.04 , 200.66
12/23/11 , 115.20 , 203.66
12/30/11 , 114.50 , 203.90
1/6/12 , 116.34 , 203.53
1/13/12 , 117.37 , 205.03
1/20/12 , 119.76 , 207.08
1/27/12 , 119.85 , 209.86
2/3/12 , 122.45 , 215.95
2/10/12 , 122.24 , 211.46
2/17/12 , 123.93 , 214.62
2/24/12 , 124.34 , 215.28
3/2/12 , 124.70 , 214.02
3/9/12 , 124.81 , 215.31
3/16/12 , 127.84 , 220.00
3/23/12 , 127.20 , 220.27
3/30/12 , 128.24 , 221.83
4/6/12 , 127.29 , 220.83
4/13/12 , 124.76 , 215.70
4/20/12 , 125.51 , 215.05
4/27/12 , 127.77 , 221.58
5/4/12 , 124.65 , 216.41
5/11/12 , 123.22 , 216.43
5/18/12 , 117.92 , 205.05
5/25/12 , 119.98 , 208.96
6/1/12 , 116.36 , 204.06
6/8/12 , 120.70 , 206.20
6/15/12 , 122.26 , 207.12
6/22/12 , 121.55 , 206.01
6/29/12 , 124.02 , 210.46
7/6/12 , 123.34 , 212.87
7/13/12 , 123.53 , 213.98
7/20/12 , 124.06 , 213.44
7/27/12 , 126.19 , 215.44
8/3/12 , 126.64 , 213.50
8/10/12 , 128.00 , 211.61
8/17/12 , 129.12 , 214.47
8/24/12 , 128.48 , 213.81
8/31/12 , 128.06 , 213.72
9/7/12 , 130.92 , 217.70
9/14/12 , 133.45 , 222.03
9/21/12 , 132.94 , 222.40
9/28/12 , 131.17 , 218.05
10/5/12 , 133.01 , 221.92
10/12/12 , 130.07 , 216.30
10/19/12 , 130.49 , 218.22
10/26/12 , 128.55 , 220.17
11/2/12 , 128.76 , 222.53
11/9/12 , 125.63 , 217.56
11/16/12 , 123.81 , 214.43
11/23/12 , 128.30 , 219.12
11/30/12 , 128.94 , 220.55
12/7/12 , 129.11 , 221.82
12/14/12 , 128.70 , 224.71
12/21/12 , 130.21 , 226.35
12/28/12 , 127.69 , 224.88
1/4/13 , 133.52 , 232.32
1/11/13 , 134.02 , 234.19
1/18/13 , 135.29 , 237.08
1/25/13 , 136.84 , 240.77
2/1/13 , 137.77 , 241.70
2/8/13 , 138.20 , 236.86
2/15/13 , 138.37 , 239.33
2/22/13 , 137.99 , 237.70
3/1/13 , 138.23 , 237.07
3/8/13 , 141.23 , 243.97
3/15/13 , 142.09 , 245.89
3/22/13 , 141.75 , 241.28
3/29/13 , 142.87 , 243.60
4/5/13 , 141.42 , 237.43
4/12/13 , 144.66 , 242.90
4/19/13 , 141.60 , 237.97
4/26/13 , 144.06 , 242.77
5/3/13 , 146.99 , 246.15
5/10/13 , 148.74 , 250.11
5/17/13 , 151.82 , 254.82
5/24/13 , 150.19 , 250.60
5/31/13 , 148.47 , 245.05
6/7/13 , 149.62 , 243.36
6/14/13 , 148.11 , 239.94
6/21/13 , 144.98 , 233.03
6/28/13 , 146.24 , 236.48
7/5/13 , 148.58 , 242.31
7/12/13 , 152.97 , 250.80
7/19/13 , 154.06 , 254.09
7/26/13 , 154.02 , 254.02
8/2/13 , 155.66 , 256.52
8/9/13 , 154.00 , 252.35
8/16/13 , 150.76 , 246.69
8/23/13 , 151.45 , 251.09
8/30/13 , 148.67 , 244.79
9/6/13 , 150.70 , 251.98
9/13/13 , 153.68 , 257.69
9/20/13 , 155.68 , 261.89
9/27/13 , 154.03 , 263.36
10/4/13 , 153.91 , 266.44
10/11/13 , 155.07 , 264.51
10/18/13 , 158.83 , 272.63
10/25/13 , 160.22 , 270.75
11/1/13 , 160.39 , 265.22
11/8/13 , 161.21 , 265.19
11/15/13 , 163.72 , 270.77
11/22/13 , 164.32 , 271.16
11/29/13 , 164.41 , 275.08
12/6/13 , 164.35 , 271.50
12/13/13 , 161.64 , 266.19
12/20/13 , 165.55 , 273.93
12/27/13 , 167.65 , 278.31
1/3/14 , 166.74 , 277.71
1/10/14 , 167.74 , 282.34
1/17/14 , 167.41 , 284.45
1/24/14 , 163.00 , 274.28
1/31/14 , 162.30 , 271.68
2/7/14 , 163.61 , 271.65
2/14/14 , 167.40 , 280.00
2/21/14 , 167.18 , 283.73
2/28/14 , 169.29 , 287.96
3/7/14 , 170.99 , 294.23
3/14/14 , 167.63 , 285.56
3/21/14 , 169.93 , 286.75
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
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Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.

Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member of the MTA since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the MTA Educational Foundation (www.mtaef.org), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. Please click the following banner for information about the Market Technicians Association. The Market Technicians Association (MTA) is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States.

 
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)

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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."

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For information about
methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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