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	U.S. Stock Market Update *For Wednesday, May 23 , 2012* *Trendlines Are Still Pointing Down* Highlights based on trading on Tuesday, May 22 , 2012: iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years. Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years. The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months. U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months. CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,316.63) rose 0.64 points or 0.05% on Tuesday--but trendlines are still pointing down. The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months: Commodity Tracking, DBC Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN Chile MSCI iS, ECH India PS, PIN India Earnings WTree, EPI Brazil Index, EWZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services. Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect. Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%. But not all money managers were down in 2011; see: Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take free trial for my weekly report -- click here. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Stock Market Indicators The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months. A potential trend change was suggested as early as 3/6/12, when both Industrials and Transports fell below their lows of the previous 4 weeks. The Averages gave an even earlier warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials. Again on 5/1/12, the Industrials rose to a higher closing price high while the Transports failed to rise to a higher closing price high, thereby indicating a non-confirmation and bearish divergence. NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/18/12 after falling below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/12. Confirming this downtrend, absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/18/12 after falling below its 50-day SMA on 5/3/12. iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/22/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11. Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/22/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11. Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 5/16/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11. The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 5/18/12. Systematically, OEX/SPX remains bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks. The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/22/12, reconfirming renewed downside momentum. Systematically, IWM/SPY returned to bearish status again on 4/20/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11. The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/18/12. Systematically, MDY/SPY is neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but with the 50-day SMA still slightly above the 200-day SMA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sentiment for Contrary Thinking Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency at the 2012 market highs. That is bearish because when the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean. Some of the most recent data suggests that investors' sentiment may be beginning to shift away from bullish complacency. AAII Sentiment: There were 51.64% Bulls and 20.19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/9/12. This was the highest level of bullish sentiment in more than a year, since 52.34% Bulls on 1/13/11. As of 5/17/12, however, sentiment had reversed, with only 23.58% Bulls and 45.97% Bears. Investors Intelligence Sentiment: according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors, there were 54.8% Bulls reported on 2/15/11, the highest since the stock market top in May, 2011. On 5/9/12, there were only 20.4% Bears, the lowest level since 6/1/11. This is still suggesting too many bulls. VIX Fear Index rose to an intraday peak of 25.14 on 5/18/12, the highest level since 12/19/12, suggesting a beginning of a shift toward skepticism from bullish complacency. VIX fell to 13.66 intraday on 3/16/12, its lowest level since 6/20/07, and down from a peak of 48.00 on 8/8/11. That large drop indicated a shift away from fear to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates. The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance 1576.09, high of 10/11/2007 1552.76, high of 10/31/2007 1523.57, high of 12/11/2007 1498.85, high of 12/26/2007 1440.24, high of 5/19/2008 1422.38, high of 4/2/2012 1415.32, high of 5/1/2012 1388.71, low of 5/3/2012 1379.79, 50-day SMA 1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range 1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support 1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range 1279.38, 200-day SMA 1277.58, low of 1/13/2012 1265.26, low of 1/5/2012 1262.30, low of 12/27/2011 1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range 1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range 1244.80, low of 12/7/2011 1239.73, low of 12/1/2011 1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high 1234.81, low of 11/3/2011 1231.04, high of 12/16/2011 1226.64, low of 11/9/2011 1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range 1224.57, high of 12/19/2011 1215.20, low of 12/16/2011 1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range 1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range 1202.37, low of 12/19/2011 1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range 1158.66, low of 11/25/2011 1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range 1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range 1074.77, low of 10/4/2011 1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range 1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range 1010.91, low of 7/1/2010 1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range 1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range 991.97, low of 9/2/2009 978.51, low of 8/17/2009 956.23, high of 6/11/2009 943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range 935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range 878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range 874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range 869.32, low of 7/8/2009 817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range 805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range 785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range 666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fixed-Income Investments Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03. Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance none. Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 4/16/12. U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tangible Assets, Commodities U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 5/22/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97. CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 5/22/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11. Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 5/14/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 6 months on 5/22/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60. Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 155.57, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85. Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/15/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35. Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/18/12. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that "Dr. Copper" is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative. Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change % Price Change, Symbol, Name 0.59% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF 5.51% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT 7.42% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc. 0.24% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ 0.26% , PUI , Utilities, PUI 3.49% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX 2.71% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren 1.60% , BBY , BEST BUY 0.89% , IGV , Software, IGV 2.94% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL 0.25% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD 0.93% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV 0.76% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF 3.16% , KBH , KB HOME 1.76% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY 1.70% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL 2.42% , GWW , WW GRAINGER 2.37% , MAS , MASCO 1.69% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL 1.43% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A 1.98% , YUM , YUM BRANDS 1.25% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH 1.88% , RHT , Red Hat Inc. 3.16% , CTB , COOPER TIRE 0.84% , RSH , RADIOSHACK 1.51% , EP , EL PASO 0.20% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD 1.95% , SPLS , STAPLES 1.51% , AN , AUTONATION 1.39% , ETFC , ETRADE FINANCIAL 0.91% , LLY , ELI LILLY 1.25% , A , AGILENT TECH 0.37% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume Ranked by Price Change Volume Change % Price Change, Symbol, Name -0.75% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS -1.33% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN -1.51% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH -4.77% , LSI , LSI LOGIC -3.50% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN -5.62% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX -2.60% , BLK , BlackRock Inc. -2.01% , AZO , AUTOZONE -2.58% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME -2.87% , PIN , India PS, PIN -2.78% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ -0.48% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ -2.02% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY -1.63% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP -0.39% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL -0.40% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC -1.37% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD -1.30% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS -0.64% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc -3.12% , DV , DeVry, Inc. -1.85% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV -1.08% , ALL , ALLSTATE -1.43% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC -1.23% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL -0.94% , CSX , CSX -1.66% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD -1.28% , AA , ALCOA -0.28% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF -0.25% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH -1.75% , ASH , ASHLAND -0.70% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP -0.83% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT -0.55% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day: % Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol 1.69% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB 1.20% Financial Services DJ, IYG 1.04% Financial Preferred, PGF 1.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF 0.92% Indonesia MV, IDX 0.79% Financial SPDR, XLF 0.76% Financial DJ US, IYF 0.71% Utilities SPDR, XLU 0.56% Utilities VIPERs, VPU 0.55% Austria Index, EWO 0.54% Financials VIPERs, VFH 0.54% Dividend SPDR, SDY 0.44% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY 0.44% Sweden Index, EWD 0.40% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY 0.37% Industrial SPDR, XLI 0.33% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK 0.30% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY 0.30% REIT Wilshire, RWR 0.30% Value S&P 500 B, IVE 0.30% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB 0.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD 0.28% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV 0.28% Italy Index, EWI 0.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP 0.27% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH 0.25% Singapore Index, EWS 0.24% Dividend DJ Select, DVY 0.23% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG 0.22% MidCap Russell, IWR 0.22% Value VIPERs, VTV 0.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS 0.21% Real Estate US DJ, IYR 0.19% REIT VIPERs, VNQ 0.19% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP 0.17% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY 0.17% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV 0.17% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF 0.17% Water Resources, PHO 0.12% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP 0.12% Networking, IGN 0.10% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ 0.10% LargeCap VIPERs, VV 0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF 0.08% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV 0.07% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE 0.06% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW 0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF 0.05% Growth VIPERs, VUG 0.03% Transportation Av DJ, IYT 0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI 0.02% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA 0.01% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB 0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV -0.01% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG -0.03% Energy Global, IXC -0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY -0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB -0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK -0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT -0.09% South Korea Index, EWY -0.10% Global 100, IOO -0.11% Japan Index, EWJ -0.11% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ -0.15% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK -0.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB -0.18% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH -0.19% United Kingdom Index, EWU -0.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT -0.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF -0.22% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV -0.22% Bond, TIPS, TIP -0.22% Malaysia Index, EWM -0.24% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR -0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG -0.24% Energy SPDR, XLE -0.25% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ -0.27% Belgium Index, EWK -0.27% Bond, Corp, LQD -0.27% Health Care SPDR, XLV -0.30% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT -0.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI -0.32% Energy DJ, IYE -0.32% Technology SPDR, XLK -0.33% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV -0.37% EAFE Index, EFA -0.38% Telecom DJ US, IYZ -0.39% Switzerland Index, EWL -0.40% Technology DJ US, IYW -0.44% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX -0.45% Energy VIPERs, VDE -0.45% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR -0.47% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW -0.47% Canada Index, EWC -0.47% Netherlands Index, EWN -0.48% Pacific VIPERs, VPL -0.49% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN -0.49% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO -0.49% Dividend International, PID -0.51% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG -0.55% Spain Index, EWP -0.55% EMU Europe Index, EZU -0.59% Germany Index, EWG -0.59% European VIPERs, VGK -0.60% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM -0.62% Materials SPDR, XLB -0.65% South Africa Index, EZA -0.66% Australia Index, EWA -0.66% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE -0.68% China 25 iS, FXI -0.70% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP -0.72% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN -0.73% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX -0.73% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX -0.75% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS -0.80% Emerging VIPERs, VWO -0.85% Mexico Index, EWW -0.88% France Index, EWQ -0.92% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE -0.92% Hong Kong Index, EWH -0.93% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM -1.03% Russia MV, RSX -1.05% Emerging Markets, EEM -1.10% Microcap Russell, IWC -1.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT -1.12% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ -1.23% Silver Trust iS, SLV -1.28% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR -1.37% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD -1.43% Commodity Tracking, DBC -1.48% Latin Am 40, ILF -1.51% Chile MSCI iS, ECH -1.66% Gold Shares S.T., GLD -1.67% Thailand MSCI iS, THD -1.70% Agriculture DB PS, DBA -1.91% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO -2.02% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO -2.21% India Earnings WTree, EPI -2.58% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME -2.78% Brazil Index, EWZ -2.87% India PS, PIN Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 very significantly since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules. This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 29, 2011. 6.7-Year Outperformance by the Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 144 percentage points over a 6.7 years period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL. *See The Colby Global Markets Report* (click here). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Simulated weekly performance of top 10 ETFs As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, my ETF Rankings are simply an ongoing weekly research study. Date , S&P 500 , Top 10 8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00 8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91 9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90 9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88 9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31 9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78 10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69 10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18 10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75 10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37 10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15 11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23 11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52 11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46 11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81 12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65 12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30 12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70 12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94 12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56 1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27 1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64 1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28 1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88 2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24 2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17 2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41 2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46 3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68 3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14 3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62 3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85 4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68 4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70 4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41 4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40 4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41 5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85 5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51 5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64 5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80 6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63 6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76 6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09 6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50 7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38 7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64 7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40 7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44 7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01 8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40 8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66 8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84 8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34 9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72 9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25 9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58 9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65 9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84 10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57 10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26 10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12 10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34 11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69 11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53 11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84 11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81 12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02 12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54 12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02 12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72 12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29 1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09 1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86 1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81 1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57 2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78 2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81 2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41 2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62 3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95 3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37 3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31 3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00 3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19 4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40 4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56 4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21 4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62 5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42 5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23 5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52 5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11 6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42 6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68 6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42 6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56 6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29 7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11 7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15 7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84 7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93 8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29 8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55 8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44 8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05 9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35 9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73 9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02 9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19 9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84 10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44 10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77 10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84 10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04 11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49 11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29 11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07 11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50 12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09 12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66 12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28 12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79 12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22 1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88 1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24 1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95 1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36 2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69 2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36 2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28 2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58 3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04 3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61 3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79 3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15 3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59 4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16 4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67 4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01 4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21 5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23 5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71 5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36 5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33 6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19 6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55 6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92 6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29 6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20 7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72 7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39 7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16 7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93 8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58 8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79 8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13 8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28 8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84 9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92 9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73 9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08 9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07 10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06 10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48 10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36 10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40 11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57 11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38 11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55 11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27 11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12 12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39 12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62 12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20 12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02 1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75 1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50 1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83 1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64 2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90 2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09 2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77 2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08 2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12 3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50 3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18 3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69 3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06 4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64 4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30 4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34 4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58 5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80 5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58 5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96 5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26 5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73 6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04 6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44 6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08 6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55 7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71 7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77 7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17 7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02 8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91 8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91 8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17 8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27 8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79 9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60 9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92 9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93 9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47 10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50 10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08 10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04 10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28 10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12 11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90 11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64 11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02 11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64 12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06 12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07 12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21 12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49 1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77 1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82 1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16 1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12 1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69 2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81 2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89 2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70 2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07 3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45 3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97 3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01 3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49 4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61 4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66 4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55 4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64 5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41 5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64 5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68 5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97 5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85 6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89 6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71 6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50 6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93 7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32 7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40 7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37 7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04 7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36 8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18 8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49 8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40 8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62 9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80 9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05 9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33 9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01 10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00 10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16 10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66 10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23 10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32 11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43 11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90 11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53 11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24 12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97 12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86 12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62 12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83 12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11 1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35 1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49 1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27 1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18 2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12 2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11 2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11 2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77 3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78 3/12/10 , 104.70 , 217.95 3/19/10 , 105.60 , 216.72 3/26/10 , 106.21 , 218.54 4/1/10 , 107.26 , 221.41 4/9/10 , 108.74 , 226.29 4/16/10 , 108.54 , 221.56 4/23/10 , 110.83 , 227.97 4/30/10 , 108.04 , 220.60 5/7/10 , 101.14 , 200.18 5/14/10 , 103.40 , 207.57 5/21/10 , 99.03 , 194.24 5/28/10 , 99.19 , 198.39 6/4/10 , 96.95 , 189.53 6/11/10 , 99.39 , 198.22 6/18/10 , 101.74 , 204.88 6/25/10 , 98.03 , 200.18 7/2/10 , 93.10 , 191.66 7/9/10 , 98.14 , 196.67 7/16/10 , 96.95 , 193.62 7/23/10 , 100.39 , 200.03 7/30/10 , 100.30 , 203.07 8/6/10 , 102.12 , 205.67 8/13/10 , 98.26 , 199.30 8/20/10 , 97.57 , 202.81 8/27/10 , 96.93 , 203.20 9/3/10 , 100.56 , 209.21 9/10/10 , 101.02 , 208.86 9/17/10 , 102.48 , 213.36 9/24/10 , 104.58 , 217.65 10/1/10 , 104.36 , 223.19 10/8/10 , 106.08 , 226.22 10/15/10 , 107.09 , 229.40 10/22/10 , 107.71 , 227.62 10/29/10 , 107.73 , 227.75 11/5/10 , 111.61 , 239.24 11/12/10 , 109.18 , 231.09 11/19/10 , 109.23 , 232.80 11/26/10 , 108.29 , 225.87 12/3/10 , 111.50 , 236.59 12/10/10 , 112.93 , 236.79 12/23/10 , 114.42 , 236.51 12/31/10 , 114.50 , 237.96 1/7/11 , 115.76 , 232.37 1/14/11 , 117.74 , 237.13 1/21/11 , 116.84 , 227.91 1/28/11 , 116.21 , 231.01 2/4/11 , 119.35 , 239.79 2/11/11 , 121.01 , 242.73 2/18/11 , 122.28 , 250.91 2/25/11 , 120.17 , 250.04 3/4/11 , 120.28 , 255.93 3/11/11 , 118.75 , 245.10 3/18/11 , 116.47 , 243.54 3/25/11 , 119.62 , 255.41 4/8/11 , 120.92 , 264.69 4/15/11 , 120.15 , 258.72 4/22/11 , 121.76 , 266.10 4/29/11 , 124.15 , 268.62 Date , S&P 500 , Top 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Money Management Rules: At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link to save 9%-10% on MetaStock®** software. 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				Syndicate content on these pages Email Colby about his Custom Research, Analysis, Trading Systems Development, and Investment Strategy Consulting Services. Subscribe to The Colby Global Markets Report *MetaStock®* NEW version 11 technical analysis software powers this technical analysis. SAVE 9%-10% by ordering here. Preview Colby's Latest Book: *The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators*, Second Edition, 2003. Dow Theory Analysis Gann Angles Analysis Update on EMA Crossover Signals Money Management Rules How To Become A Top Trader. Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using "Annual Relative Advantage". Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index". Robert W. Colby, CMT, is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing. Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the *Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org)* after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member of the MTA since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the *MTA Educational Foundation (www.mtaef.org), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. 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However, quotations are permitted, provided that full attribution is given to www.robertwcolby.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ranking ETFs "Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue,* June 4, 2007. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in *Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES* magazine, December 2006 issue. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view thisength strategy to ETFs." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in *SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TradingMarkets.com* interviewed Robert W. Colby, CMT. View the entire interview online. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 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Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . This technical analysis is powered by powerful computing hardware from the following providers: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link to save 9%-10% on *MetaStock®* software. Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial.