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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
Posted Saturday, February 6, 2010, at 2:55 p.m. ET
Stock Market: hammering out a bottom while Fear jumped to a 3-month high.
Friday’s price action in the stock price indexes qualifies as a hammer, which is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern in a downward price trend. The hammer has a long lower shadow much greater than the small real body and has a very small upper shadow. Early-day extreme lows were rejected by the market, and the small white real body indicates that the bulls took control by the close.
High volume on the day confirmed the upside reversal.
Stock price indexes got oversold and may have found support above the November lows and above 200-day simple moving averages.
Various short-term momentum oscillators, such as RSI 14, turned up after holding above last week’s low and, thereby, showing bullish divergence compared to price.
The stock market appears to have undergone a typical, 5% to 10% short-term correction within a long-term uptrend.
Prices of the major indexes and stock sectors have fallen to multi-month lows and have crossed below their 50-day simple moving averages in recent weeks. But prices have held above 200-day simple moving averages, which are much more significant indicators of the major trends.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months. EFA /SPY is below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of EFA fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 2/5/10 and is below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
CRB Index of commodity prices, Crude Oil, Gold, and Copper fell further below 2-3-month lows. Weakness in industrial commodity prices suggests renewed doubts about prospects for the world economy.
U.S. Treasury Bond price broke out above 5-week highs on 2/5/10, thereby signaling an uptrend for the short term. In addition, the Bond price rose above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, thereby signaling an uptrend for the longer term.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) broke down below 7-week lows and its 50-day simple moving average. TIP/IEF remains above its rising 200-day simple moving average.
The U.S. dollar price broke out above 7-month highs, again confirming a significant uptrend. USD crossed above its rising 50-day simple moving average on 12/8/09 and crossed above its falling 200-day simple moving average on 1/27/10.
VIX Fear Index jumped to a 3-month high at 29.22 on 2/5/10, up from 17.55 on 1/11/10, which was its lowest level in 26 months.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.61% , PWER , POWER ONE
3.53% , PKI , PERKINELMER
4.88% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
1.18% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
3.63% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
5.63% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
6.18% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
5.23% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.00% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.43% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
2.30% , WAT , WATERS
1.67% , MON , MONSANTO
1.30% , AET , AETNA
1.97% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
0.89% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.52% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.55% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.56% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
1.35% , PCG , PG&E
0.94% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.04% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
6.07% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.68% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.77% , DELL , DELL
3.47% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.82% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.87% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
2.92% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.25% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.90% , ORCL , ORACLE
1.65% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.84% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
1.05% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.24% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
1.61% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.11% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.45% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.88% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
2.28% , IGW , Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.65% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.76% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-6.85% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-1.16% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.28% , ACS , AFFILIATED COMPUTER
-2.82% , RAI , RJR TOBACCO HLDS
-1.57% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-1.10% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-2.74% , KBH , KB HOME
-3.37% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.73% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.33% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-3.32% , TXT , TEXTRON
-2.16% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.50% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-0.94% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-1.28% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.61% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-4.11% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.84% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.17% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-2.20% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.97% , DOV , DOVER
-1.62% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.81% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-1.78% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-1.90% , KG , KING PHARM
-2.32% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.60% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-2.74% , FDX , FEDEX
-1.92% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-2.20% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.49% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.77% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-0.30% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-1.10% , GLW , CORNING
-0.62% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-2.20% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-2.08% , XRX , XEROX
-0.57% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-3.71% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose further above the highs of the previous 34 months on 2/4/10. XLY/SPY remains above its rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLY fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 29.78, 30.38, 30.54, 31.95 and 33.76.
Health Care (XLV) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above 6-month highs on 1/29/10. XLV/SPY remains above its rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLV fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 32.12, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell further below the lows of the previous 3 months on 2/2/10. XLK/SPY fell below its 50-day simple moving average on 1/11/10 and fell below its 200-day simple moving average on 1/28/10. Absolute price of XLK fell below 3-month lows on 2/5/10. Price broke down below its 50-day simple moving average on 1/22/10 but remains above its rising 200-day simple moving average. Support 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 21.51, 22.05, 22.59, 22.87, and 23.05.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) has moderately outperformed since the market bottom on 3/6/09. XLI/SPY remains moderately above rising 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLI fell below 3-month lows on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 26.66 and 25.20. Resistance 28.41, 29.61, 30.56 and 32.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 9 weeks on 1/29/10 and above its 50-day simple moving average on 1/22/10. XLP/SPY is only slightly below its falling 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLP fell below 2 month lows on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 26.05, 25.96 and 25.77. Resistance 26.81, 27.04, 27.18 and 29.29.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY ) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 1/29/10. XLB/SPY fell below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 1/21/10 and has continued to decline. Absolute price of XLB fell below 13-week lows on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 31.62, 32.57, 33.73 and 34.52.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 1/29/10. XLE/SPY fell below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages on 1/26/10. Absolute price of XLE fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 57.36, 57.72, 58.52 and 59.90.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) may be attempting to stabilize since probing 2-year lows on 11/18/09. XLU/SPY remains below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLU fell below the lows of the previous 13 weeks on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 28.46 and 28.10. Resistance 29.98, 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) was in a downward correction from 10/14/09 to 12/17/09 after outperforming from 3/6/09 to 10/14/09. XLF/SPY appears to be attempting to stabilize in recent weeks but remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLF fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. Support 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 14.60, 14.68, 15.40 and 15.76.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 2/5/10. In addition, absolute price of EEM fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average. EEM has underperformed the SPY since 10/14/09.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 2/5/10. EFA /SPY is below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of EFA fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 2/5/10 and is below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. EFA has underperformed the SPY since 9/9/09.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its rising 50-day simple moving average on 2/5/10 and remains above its rising 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price fell below 3-month lows on 2/5/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) has been performing sideways/neutral for most of the past 11 months, since March 2009. Longer term, IWF/IWD has been bullish since 8/8/06.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) has been performing sideways/neutral for most of the past 9 months, since May 2009. Longer term, IWD/SPY has been bearish since 3/22/07, and we assume that major trends continue--until proved otherwise.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 2/2/10. RSP/SPY remains above its rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of RSP rose to a new 15-month closing price high on 1/8/10. Price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below the lows of the previous 3 months on 12/22/09. OEX/SPX remains below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose back above its 200-day simple moving average on 2/5/10 and remains above its 50-day simple moving average. Absolute price remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average.
The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 4 months on 1/22/10. MDY/SPY remains above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of MDY remains below its 50-day but above its 200-day simple moving average.
CRB Index of commodity prices fell further below 3-month lows on 2/5/10.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 2/5/10, confirming a short-term downtrend. Oil remains below its 50-day but above 200-day simple moving average. Support 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 78.04, 79.47, 80.36, 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell further below 3-month lows on 2/5/10. Gold remains below its 50-day simple moving average but above its rising 200-day simple moving average. Support 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1126.4, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 7-month lows on 1/29/10 after falling below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 1/15/10. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09. Absolute price of GDX fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 2/5/10 and is below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
Silver/Gold Ratio fell further below 6-month lows on 2/5/10. It fell sharply from 1/19/10 to 2/5/10, breaking below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. The Silver/Gold Ratio has been trending lower since its peak on 9/16/09, following 11 months of rising trend. Weakness in this Ratio suggests renewed doubts about prospects for the world economy.
Copper nearest futures contract price broke down further below 3-month lows on 2/5/10. Weakness in Copper suggests renewed doubts about prospects for the world economy. Support 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.144, 3.267, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price broke out above 5-week highs on 2/5/10, thereby signaling an uptrend for the short term. In addition, the Bond price rose above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, thereby signaling an uptrend for the longer term. Support 117.08, 116.22, 115.24, 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 120.11 and 123.18.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 8-week lows and below its 50-day simple moving average on 2/4/10. JNK/LQD remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of JNK remains below its 50-day but above its rising 200-day simple moving average.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) broke down below 7-week lows and its 50-day simple moving average on 2/5/10. TIP/IEF remains above its rising 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of TIP rose above 2-month highs 1/29/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke out above 7-month highs on 2/5/10, again confirming a significant uptrend. USD crossed above its rising 50-day simple moving average on 12/8/09 and crossed above its falling 200-day simple moving average on 1/27/10. Support 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 81.165 and 81.795.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 38.9% Bulls versus 22.2% Bears as of 2/3/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio collapsed to a neutral 1.75, down from 3.36 on 1/13/10, which was the highest ratio of bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range of the ratio is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.50, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index jumped to a 3-month high at 29.22 on 2/5/10, up from 17.55 on 1/11/10, which was its lowest level in 26 months. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index rose to 28.64 on 2/5/10, up from 17.73 on 1/14/10, which was its lowest level in 26 months. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to 0.67 on 1/26/10, down from 1.68 on 1/11/10, indicating a shift to pessimism from optimism. The ratio’s 6-year mean is 1.41, its median is 1.36, and its range is 0.51 to 3.16.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.79 on 2/4/10, up from 0.49 on 1/8/10, indicating a shift to moderate pessimism from optimism. The ratio’s 6-year mean is 0.66, its median is 0.64, and its range is 0.35 to 1.35.
The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 1/11/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 14 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 signal reversed the previous signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) tested and rebounded from its 40-week EMA (the long-term weekly optimal EMA) on 2/5/10. Various short-term momentum oscillators, such as RSI 14, turned up after holding above last week’s low and thereby showing bullish divergence compared to price. The stock market appears to have gone through a typical short-term correction within a long-term uptrend. SPX fell 7.57% over 12 trading days, from a high close on 1/19/10 to the low close on 2/4/10. This was the largest decline and the 4th decline in the 5% to 10% range since the bottom on 3/9/09 (based on closing prices only). Price pullbacks lasting a few days to a few weeks and declining less than 10% are common in Bull Markets. For example, there were 9 declines more than 5% but less than 10% from the low in March 2003 to the bull market top in October 2007. There were no pullbacks of as much as 10%, and no pullback lasted as long as 3 months. SPX closed below its 50-day simple moving average every day since 1/22/10 (which is typical of minor corrections) but remains well above its more significant rising 200-day simple moving average now at 1018.87. Support 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1104.73, 1114.81, 1121.44, 1131.32 and 1150.45.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1158.76, EW ABC measured move target
1150.45, high of 1/19/2010
1131.32, low of 1/7/2010
1121.44, Gann 50.0% of 2007-2009 range
1114.81, low of 12/31/2009
1104.73, high of 2/2/2010
1083.74, low of 11/27/2009
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.92% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.45% Semiconductor H, SMH
2.28% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2.07% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.88% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.87% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.87% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.84% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.82% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.57% Materials VIPERs, VAW
1.52% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.42% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
1.18% Semiconductors, PSI
1.16% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.15% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.05% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.04% Bank Regional H, RKH
1.03% Technology GS, IGM
1.01% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.00% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.94% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.90% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.90% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
0.89% Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.88% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.85% Technology MS sT, MTK
0.84% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.73% Software, IGV
0.72% Canada Index, EWC
0.69% Telecom H, TTH
0.59% Australia Index, EWA
0.57% Internet H, HHH
0.56% Networking, IGN
0.55% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
0.52% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.52% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
0.50% Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.48% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.45% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.43% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.43% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.43% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.43% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.39% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.39% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.37% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.37% Technology Global, IXN
0.34% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.34% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.32% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.32% Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.32% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.31% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.30% Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.30% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.30% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.28% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.28% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.27% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.27% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.27% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.27% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.27% Retail H, RTH
0.26% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.26% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.26% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.25% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.25% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.24% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.24% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.24% Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
0.23% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
0.22% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.22% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.21% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.21% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.21% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.19% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.19% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.17% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
0.17% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.16% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.16% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.16% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.15% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
0.14% MidCap VIPERs, VO
0.14% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.12% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.12% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.11% Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.11% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.11% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.11% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.09% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.08% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.08% Biotech H, BBH
0.07% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.07% Software, PSJ
0.07% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.06% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
0.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.05% Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.02% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.02% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-0.01% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-0.05% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.05% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-0.06% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.07% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.08% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-0.08% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-0.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.11% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-0.11% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.11% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.11% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.12% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.13% Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.13% Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.13% Water Resources, PHO
-0.14% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.16% Healthcare DJ, IYH
-0.16% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.16% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.17% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.17% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.17% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.18% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.18% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.19% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.20% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.21% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.24% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.24% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-0.26% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.26% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.26% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.26% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.26% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-0.27% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.27% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.28% Short 200% US T Bond, TBT
-0.28% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.28% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.30% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-0.30% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.31% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.32% Global Titans, DGT
-0.32% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-0.34% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.36% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-0.39% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.39% Utilities H, UTH
-0.40% Utilities DJ, IDU
-0.40% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-0.41% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-0.41% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.42% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-0.42% Internet B2B H, BHH
-0.44% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.46% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-0.46% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.46% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-0.48% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-0.48% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.48% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.51% Software H, SWH
-0.51% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-0.53% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.54% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.56% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-0.57% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.57% Utilities, PUI
-0.59% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.60% Oil Services H, OIH
-0.61% Short 200% Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.62% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.62% Insurance, PIC
-0.64% Energy Global, IXC
-0.69% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.75% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.76% Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.77% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-0.84% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.84% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.85% Building & Construction, PKB
-0.87% Spain Index, EWP
-0.92% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.92% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.93% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.94% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-0.97% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.02% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.10% Dividend International, PID
-1.11% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-1.12% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.12% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.16% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.16% Healthcare Global, IXJ
-1.18% Global 100, IOO
-1.18% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.19% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.20% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.28% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.50% Germany Index, EWG
-1.53% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.57% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-1.60% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.61% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.62% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.73% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.76% Retail, PMR
-1.91% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.91% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.11% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.20% Italy Index, EWI
-2.27% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.32% Austria Index, EWO
-2.32% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.78% France Index, EWQ
Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 very significantly since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 5, 2010.
4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 92 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Value S&P 500, RPV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
99 Software, PSJ
98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
97 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
97 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
97 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
96 Internet H, HHH
96 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 5, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 235 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 235 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Value S&P 500, RPV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
99 Software, PSJ
98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
97 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
97 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
97 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
96 Internet H, HHH
96 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
95 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
95 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
94 Technology MS sT, MTK
94 Healthcare DJ, IYH
94 Financial Preferred, PGF
93 Health Care SPDR, XLV
93 Biotech & Genome, PBE
92 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
92 Technology DJ US, IYW
91 Growth S&P 500, RPG
91 Internet Architecture H, IAH
91 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
90 India Earnings WTree, EPI
90 Mexico Index, EWW
89 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
89 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
89 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
88 Value MidCap iS M, JKI
88 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
87 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
87 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
86 Technology GS, IGM
86 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
86 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
85 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
85 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
84 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 Biotech SPDR, XBI
83 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
83 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
83 MidCap Russell, IWR
82 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
82 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
81 MidCap VIPERs, VO
81 Biotech H, BBH
80 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
80 Aerospace & Defense, PPA
80 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
79 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
79 South Korea Index, EWY
78 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
78 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
77 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
77 Malaysia Index, EWM
77 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
76 Growth Large Cap, ELG
76 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
75 Technology Global, IXN
75 Healthcare Global, IXJ
74 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
74 REIT Wilshire, RWR
74 Retail H, RTH
73 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
73 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
72 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
72 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
71 Technology SPDR, XLK
71 Software H, SWH
71 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
70 Industrial SPDR, XLI
70 Software, IGV
69 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
69 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
69 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
68 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
68 Growth VIPERs, VUG
67 Dividend SPDR, SDY
67 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
66 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
66 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
66 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
65 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
65 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
64 Singapore Index, EWS
64 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
63 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
63 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
63 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
62 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
62 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
61 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
61 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
60 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
60 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
60 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
59 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
59 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
58 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
58 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
57 Industrials VIPERs, VIS
57 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
57 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
56 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
56 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
55 Semiconductor H, SMH
55 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
54 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
54 Latin Am 40, ILF
54 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
53 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
53 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
52 Bond, TIPS, TIP
52 Sweden Index, EWD
51 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
51 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
51 Networking, IGN
50 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
50 Bond, Corp, LQD
49 Canada Index, EWC
49 Retail, PMR
49 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
48 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
48 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
47 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
47 Dividend Leaders, FDL
46 Emerging Markets, EEM
46 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
46 Value VIPERs, VTV
45 Microcap Russell, IWC
45 Pharmaceutical H, PPH
44 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
44 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
43 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
43 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
43 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
42 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
42 Materials VIPERs, VAW
41 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
41 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
40 Oil Services H, OIH
40 Switzerland Index, EWL
40 South Africa Index, EZA
39 Internet B2B H, BHH
39 Materials SPDR, XLB
38 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
38 Australia Index, EWA
37 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
37 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
37 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
36 Brazil Index, EWZ
36 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
35 Japan Index, EWJ
35 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
34 Netherlands Index, EWN
34 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
34 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
33 Food & Beverage, PBJ
33 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
32 Taiwan Index, EWT
32 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
31 Dividend International, PID
31 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
31 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
30 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
30 Bank Regional H, RKH
29 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
29 Semiconductors, PSI
29 Hong Kong Index, EWH
28 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
28 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
27 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
27 Energy SPDR, XLE
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Insurance, PIC
26 Global Titans, DGT
25 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
25 Financials VIPERs, VFH
24 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
24 Financial DJ US, IYF
23 Energy DJ, IYE
23 EAFE Index, EFA
23 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
22 Global 100, IOO
22 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
21 United Kingdom Index, EWU
21 Utilities DJ, IDU
20 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
20 Water Resources, PHO
20 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
19 Utilities SPDR, XLU
19 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
18 Belgium Index, EWK
18 Financial SPDR, XLF
17 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
17 Financial Services DJ, IYG
17 Silver Trust iS, SLV
16 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
16 Oil & Gas, PXJ
15 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
15 Telecommunications Global, IXP
14 Energy Global, IXC
14 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
14 Utilities H, UTH
13 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
13 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
12 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
12 Nanotech Lux, PXN
11 China 25 iS, FXI
11 Utilities, PUI
11 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
10 Telecom H, TTH
10 Short 200% US T Bond, TBT
9 Building & Construction, PKB
9 European VIPERs, VGK
9 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
8 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
8 Commodity Tracking, DBC
7 France Index, EWQ
7 Germany Index, EWG
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
6 Short 200% Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
6 Austria Index, EWO
5 Short 100% S&P 500, SH
5 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
4 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
4 Italy Index, EWI
3 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
3 Spain Index, EWP
3 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs
As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
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Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis
The best EMAs
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Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
"Annual Relative Advantage".
Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is senior investment strategist at TraderPlanet.com, TradingEducation.com, and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of years. Mr. Colby has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (www.mtaeducationalfoundation.org/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools.
"Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
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Past daily update archives are online. Please click here, scroll to the bottom of the linked page,
and click on any past date.
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
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Hedge Funds Underperformed in 2009
According to Reuters, hedge funds gained less than 20% in 2009, on average, thereby lagging the 24% gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. In 2008, clients reacted to the industry's worst-ever losses by pulling out a record $155 billion.
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For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 5, 2010.
Global Markets
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Major Trend Rank
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 LUMBER, LB
99 NATURAL GAS, NG
97 LIVE HOGS, LH
96 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
95 Health Care SPDR, XLV
93 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
92 Mexico Index, EWW
91 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
89 Biotech SPDR, XBI
88 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
87 JAPANESE YEN, JY
86 South Korea Index, EWY
84 GOLD 100 CMX, GC
83 Malaysia Index, EWM
82 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
80 Retail H, RTH
79 Technology SPDR, XLK
78 Industrial SPDR, XLI
76 Singapore Index, EWS
75 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
74 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
72 COPPER CMX H/G, HG
71 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
70 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
68 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
67 LIVE CATTLE, LC
66 Semiconductor H, SMH
64 Latin Am 40, ILF
63 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
62 Bond, TIPS, TIP
61 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD
59 S&P 500 INDEX, SP
58 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI
57 Bond, Corp, LQD
55 Canada Index, EWC
54 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD
53 Emerging Markets, EEM
51 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
50 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
49 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
47 FEEDER CATTLE, FC
46 Oil Services H, OIH
45 Materials SPDR, XLB
43 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY
42 Brazil Index, EWZ
41 Japan Index, EWJ
39 Taiwan Index, EWT
38 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
37 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB
36 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
34 US T-Bonds, US
33 Hong Kong Index, EWH
32 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL
30 Energy SPDR, XLE
29 SWISS FRANC, SF
28 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK
26 SOYBEAN OIL, BO
25 EAFE Index, EFA
24 HEATING OIL, HO
22 Utilities SPDR, XLU
21 Belgium Index, EWK
20 Financial SPDR, XLF
18 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
17 Silver Trust iS, SLV
16 BRITISH POUND, BP
14 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
13 China 25 iS, FXI
12 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI
11 Commodity Tracking, DBC
9 France Index, EWQ
8 Germany Index, EWG
7 Austria Index, EWO
5 CORN, C
4 RAPESEED, RS
3 SOYBEANS, S
1 WHEAT, W
0 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM