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Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
July 31, 2015
The U.S. Stock Market:
bullish complacency is definitely not recommended
Preview from my weekly report*
For the short term, global stock prices remain choppy and erratic, with rapid and violent twists and turns, creating a high-risk environment for traders. Longer term, bullish momentum has been deteriorating (slowing) most of this year, which makes us question the longevity of the long bull market. It appears that risks are rising for long-term investors. Although we do not yet see major trend sell signals, the prevailing general mood of bullish complacency is definitely not recommended.
• Medium-term trends, covering several months, remain corrective for most of the major U.S. stock price indexes.
• Long term, U.S. stock price index trends have been bullish for more than 6 years. Now, however, technical signs of significant major trend deterioration are accumulating, and the long uptrend is becoming increasingly questionable.
• Defensive stock sectors generally remain stronger than Cyclical sectors, with Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples performing especially well. Utilities have turned relatively strong since 6/25/15. Health Care, which has been an upside leader for many months, suffered a sharp drop a week ago, however, indicating that even the established winners are vulnerable when an important component stock (Biogen, BIIB) reports disappointing earnings. In such a volatile trading environment, using protective stop-loss orders makes sense. Be especially cautious ahead of earnings reports.
• The Cyclical sectors, Energy, Materials, and Industrial, are extremely weak and should continue to be avoided or sold. The Financial sector has turned relatively weak since 7/22/15, and Technology has turned relatively weak since 5/27/15.
• Foreign stocks (especially BRICs and emerging markets), commodities (especially oil and metals), and commodity-related stocks remain extremely vulnerable and should continue to be avoided or sold.
• U.S. Treasury Bonds have turned upward as investors fled to safety, and the short-term trend appears to have further upside potential.
Now is the time to take action. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios.
Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution--and the troubles in Europe are just the tip of the iceberg. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--but we will.
If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion.
We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer all your questions.
Call us now for a free consultation.
by phone: 646-652-6879
or by email: firstname.lastname@example.org
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
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11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
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See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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