www.robertwcolby.com
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2008, at 6:55 p.m. ET
Stock Price Indexes Hit Resistance.
Investment Advisors are Bullish and are growing more Bullish.
VIX indicates that fear has decreased substantially.
Stock Price Oscillators have been losing Bullish Momentum.
On Wednesday, major stock price indexes opened higher and continued to rise until about 1:45 p.m. Prices started a slow downward drift that accelerated into a steep slide in the final hour. Stocks closed below their open and near the lows of the day. Total NYSE volume fell 2%, indicating waning demand for stocks.
At about 1:45 p.m., Standard & Poor's 500 cash index (1,408.66) approached but stopped short of Potential Resistance at 1,422.72, which was the high of 5/2/2008.
The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite all remain below their falling 200-day simple moving averages. MACD remains below its Signal Line and is falling, based on the end-of-day SPY. I still am assuming that the March-May rally was nothing more than a counter-trend rally and Secondary Reaction Continuation Pattern within the context of a Primary Bearish Trend.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential “event” stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol , Name
9.73% , SSCC , Smurfit-Stone Container Corporation
9.17% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
0.57% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
0.81% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
6.40% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
4.59% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.05% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
4.38% , EMC , EMC
1.46% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.42% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
3.37% , PKI , PERKINELMER
3.69% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
2.43% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
6.41% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.90% , PHW , Hardware & Electronics, PHW
1.12% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.50% , SVU , SUPERVALU
3.59% , SWY , SAFEWAY
3.17% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
0.71% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.95% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.17% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
6.17% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
4.27% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
1.32% , ROH , ROHM & HAAS
3.98% , CIEN.O , CIENA
2.92% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.12% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
1.02% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
2.61% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
2.61% , RTH , Retail H, RTH
2.60% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
6.83% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
5.14% , COH , COACH
2.34% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.14% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
3.43% , SGP , SCHERING PLOUGH
0.62% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
2.20% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
2.49% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol , Name
-9.91% , DE , DEERE & CO
-13.91% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
-3.51% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-3.01% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-1.75% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.75% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.57% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.66% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-2.65% , CIT , CIT GROUP
-1.63% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-0.96% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-2.01% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.42% , FISV , FISERV
-1.46% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
-2.88% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.57% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-0.32% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.58% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-2.34% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-0.62% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-3.50% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-3.28% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-3.06% , APA , APACHE
-1.21% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.73% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.13% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.36% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.20% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-0.09% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.44% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.18% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.84% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-1.19% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-1.53% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.30% , BMC , BMC SOFTWARE
-0.82% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.53% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.49% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-2.07% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.14% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, 8 rose and 1 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change Sector
1.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.83% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.69% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.39% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.37% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.10% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.14% Energy SPDR, XLE
Looking beyond the daily fluctuation to the major trends (listed in order of long-term relative strength):
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. On 4/22/08, both the XLE price close and the XLE/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to new all-time highs, again confirming a major uptrend.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. On 4/16/08, both the XLB price and the XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to new all-time highs, confirming a major uptrend.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. On 5/1/08, the XLI/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 3-month high, confirming an improving intermediate-term trend.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. On 5/12/08, the XLK/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 3-month high, signaling an improving intermediate-term trend.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. On 5/6/08, the XLP/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 3-month low, confirming a corrective intermediate-term trend.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The XLU/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has been in a moderately rising trend since 3/25/08, and so Utilities have improved somewhat in these rankings.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 4/30/08, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 3-month low, suggesting renewed weakness. On 1/11/08, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 6-year low, confirming a major downtrend.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Underweight. On 5/13/08, the XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 6-year low, again confirming the existing Primary Bearish trend.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 3/17/08, both absolute price and the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to their lowest levels in nearly 5-years, again confirming a major Bearish trend.
Foreign stock indexes outperformed since 2/8/08. In addition, from the major bottom on 3/12/03, the EFA outperformed, so the major trend is up. EFA is the ETF representing the EAFE, the international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada.
NASDAQ Composite price outperformed since 3/3/08. Therefore, one might argue that the 2-month Relative Strength trend has been improving. But longer term, the relative trends in larger time frames appear to be contradicting. The NASDAQ underperformed since 11/7/07 and, on 3/3/08, Relative Strength fell to a new 9-month low, confirming downtrends in larger time frames.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio has been in an uptrend for the intermediate term, since 2/1/08. Long term, the Growth/Value ratio (IWF/IWD) has been in an uptrend since 8/8/06.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio has been rising since 3/10/08. But the Relative Strength Ratio is still in a downtrend since the peak on 4/19/06, so the main long-term trend is Relatively Bearish for Small Caps.
Crude Oil June futures eased moderately lower. On 5/13/08, Oil rose to a new all-time high, confirming uptrends in all time frames. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.
The Energy stock sector has underperformed Crude Oil since 12/10/07.
Gold June futures fell again, breaking below the lows of the previous 6-days. The very short-term trend appears Bearish. In addition, price remains below the falling trendline from the 3/17/08 top, so Gold still may be in an intermediate-term Secondary Reaction, downside correction. Longer term, the 7-year trend is still Bullish.
Silver sharply underperformed Gold since 3/5/08. In addition, iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) has been relatively weak compared to Gold longer term, since 12/7/06. Finally, for the past 28 years, since 1/2/80, Silver has underperformed Gold.
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) / Gold Bullion Relative Strength Ratio fell to another new low on 4/29/08. Longer-term, GDX significantly underperformed Gold since 10/31/07. Therefore, GDX trends are Bearish relative to Gold itself.
U.S. Treasury Bond prices tested February-May price lows but reversed to close higher. This reversal might provide some hope for the short-term outlook. Bonds have traced out Secondary Reaction, intermediate-term downside correction phase since the price peak on 3/20/08. Bond prices benefit from fears of financial crisis, and they correct to the downside when financial crisis takes a back seat to some other news of the day.
The U.S. dollar rose above the previous 3-day highs intraday, but surrendered most of that gain by the close. The minor uptrend since the low on 4/22/08 seems questionable. The major trend of the dollar remains down.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: Traders need to be extremely nimble to keep up with rapid changes in the mass mood of late. The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again many times in recent weeks, creating an extremely choppy trading environment. Investors’ moods and stock volatility have jumped up and down abruptly with the latest “reports”. When mass psychology shifts so dramatically and unpredictably from hope to fear, without warning, risk control becomes more important than aggressive profit seeking. Stay flexible.
Sentiment/Contrary Opinion: There were 46.0% Bulls versus 29.9% Bears as of 5/14/08, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.54, up from 1.37 the previous week. The ratio’s 38-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, and the median is 1.47.
VIX “Fear Index”, now at 17.66 and falling, is in a downtrend, meaning that Fear has been decreasing. VIX has been falling since its peak of 32.64 on 3/17/08. The all-time high was 45.74 on 10/8/98. The all-time low was 9.89 on 1/24/07. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN “Fear Index”, now at 21.47 and falling, is in a downtrend, meaning that Fear is decreasing. VXN has been falling since its peak of 35.63 on 1/22/08. The all-time high was 114.23 on 10/8/98. The all-time low was 12.61 on 7/29/05. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio is 0.60, which indicates relatively neutral sentiment. Its 4-year simple moving average and median are 0.62, and its 4-year range is 0.35 to 1.28.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio is 0.94, which indicates Bearish sentiment. The ratio’s 4-year simple moving average is 1.50, 4-year median is 1.47, and 4-year range is 0.51 to 3.04.
Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and the net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the subprime credit market crisis has derailed that engine. Economic statistics and corporate earnings have been weakening.
A Secondary Reaction was signaled on 4/18/28, when the Dow-Jones Industrials and Transports both closed at 3-month highs. But the Primary Tide Major Trend still may be Bearish. The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Bear Market on 11/21/07 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their respective closing price lows of August, 2007.
To discover the next Resistance, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index (1,408.66):
Potential Resistance
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,435.65, low of 12/18/2007
1,430.28, high of 1/8/08
1,422.72, high of 5/2/2008
To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index (1,408.66):
Potential Support
1,383.07, low of 5/1/2008
1,324.35, low of 4/15/2008
1,256.98, low of 3/17/2008
1,224.54, low of 7/18/2006
1,219.29, low of 6/14/2006
1,214.45, low of 11/4/2005
1,201.07, low of 11/2/2005
1,168.20, low of 10/13/2005
1,163.23, high of 3/5/2004
1,159.86, low of 5/17/2005
1,153.64, low of 5/16/2005
1,146.18, low of 5/13/2005
1,139.14, low of 4/29/2005
1,136.37, low of 4/20/2005
Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
2.92% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.61% Retail H, RTH
2.60% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
2.34% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.90% Hardware & Electronics, PHW
1.50% Mexico Index, EWW
1.46% Semiconductors, PSI
1.33% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.32% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
1.28% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.18% Retail, PMR
1.17% Telecommunications Global, IXP
1.17% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.17% Value S&P 500, RPV
1.13% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.12% Semiconductor H, SMH
1.12% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.05% Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.03% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.02% Utilities, PUI
1.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.01% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
1.01% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.99% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.96% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.94% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
0.93% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.91% Japan Index, EWJ
0.88% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.85% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.83% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.81% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.81% Bank Regional H, RKH
0.80% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.80% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
0.78% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
0.78% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.77% Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.77% Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.75% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
0.74% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.72% China 25 iS, FXI
0.71% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.70% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.70% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.69% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.69% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.69% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.68% Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
0.67% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
0.67% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.66% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.65% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.64% Telecom H, TTH
0.62% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.62% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
0.61% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.61% Technology Global, IXN
0.60% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.60% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.60% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.58% Australia Index, EWA
0.58% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
0.58% Italy Index, EWI
0.57% Utilities H, UTH
0.57% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% South Korea Index, EWY
0.55% Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.54% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.53% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.53% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.52% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
0.52% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.52% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.51% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
0.51% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.51% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.51% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.50% Utilities DJ, IDU
0.49% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.49% France Index, EWQ
0.46% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.46% Water Resources, PHO
0.46% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.46% Technology GS, IGM
0.46% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.43% Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.42% Insurance, PIC
0.42% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.40% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.40% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.39% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.38% Austria Index, EWO
0.37% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.36% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.36% MidCap VIPERs, VO
0.35% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.35% Technology MS sT, MTK
0.35% Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.35% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.34% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.34% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.34% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.34% Software H, SWH
0.33% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.32% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.31% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.31% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.31% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.30% Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.30% Spain Index, EWP
0.29% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.29% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
0.28% Biotech H, BBH
0.28% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.27% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.27% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.24% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.24% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.23% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.22% Networking, IGN
0.22% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
0.22% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.21% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.21% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.21% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.20% Software, IGV
0.19% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.18% Biotechnology, IBB
0.18% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.18% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.17% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.17% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.17% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.17% Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.16% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.16% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.15% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.15% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.14% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.14% Global 100, IOO
0.14% Internet H, HHH
0.14% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.13% Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.12% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.12% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.12% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.11% Software, PSJ
0.11% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.10% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.10% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.10% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.09% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
0.09% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.09% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.07% Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.07% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.07% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.06% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
0.06% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.05% Dividend International, PID
0.04% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.04% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
0.04% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.04% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
0.03% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.02% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.01% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
0.00% EAFE Index, EFA
0.00% Networking, PXQ
0.00% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.00% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
0.00% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.01% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-0.03% Canada Index, EWC
-0.03% Germany Index, EWG
-0.03% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.05% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.07% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-0.09% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.11% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.11% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-0.12% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.12% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.14% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.16% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.18% Energy Global, IXC
-0.20% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.21% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.21% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-0.22% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.22% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.22% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.27% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.33% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.33% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.36% Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.36% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.41% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.44% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.44% Broadband H, BDH
-0.46% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.50% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.51% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.54% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.58% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-0.66% Building & Construction, PKB
-0.70% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.75% Global Titans, DGT
-0.78% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.80% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.80% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.81% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.83% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-1.07% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.10% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.12% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.13% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.14% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.46% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.53% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.57% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.62% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.75% Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.01% Oil Services H, OIH
-3.01% Internet B2B H, BHH
Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs beat the market, rising more than 3 times as much as the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .For Week ended Friday, May 9, 2008, as of Friday's close
3-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength gained 3.55 times more, or 67.18 percentage points more, than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These “Top 10” are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
99 Commodity Tracking, DBC
99 Brazil Index, EWZ
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
97 Oil & Gas, PXJ
97 Latin Am 40, ILF
97 Oil Services H, OIH
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
For Week ended Friday, May 9, 2008, as of Friday's close
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 238 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 238 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
99 Commodity Tracking, DBC
99 Brazil Index, EWZ
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
97 Oil & Gas, PXJ
97 Latin Am 40, ILF
97 Oil Services H, OIH
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
95 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Energy Global, IXC
94 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Canada Index, EWC
93 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
93 Materials VIPERs, VAW
92 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
92 Silver Trust iS, SLV
91 Materials SPDR, XLB
91 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
91 Emerging Markets, EEM
90 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
90 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
89 Spain Index, EWP
89 Water Resources, PHO
89 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
88 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
88 Internet Architecture H, IAH
87 South Africa Index, EZA
87 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
86 Biotech SPDR, XBI
86 Australia Index, EWA
86 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
85 Taiwan Index, EWT
85 Mexico Index, EWW
84 Software, IGV
84 Singapore Index, EWS
83 Austria Index, EWO
83 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
83 Germany Index, EWG
82 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
82 China 25 iS, FXI
81 Internet B2B H, BHH
81 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
80 Bond, TIPS, TIP
80 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
80 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
79 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
79 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
78 Growth VIPERs, VUG
78 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
77 Technology GS, IGM
77 Netherlands Index, EWN
77 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
76 Growth Large Cap, ELG
76 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
75 Technology Global, IXN
75 Utilities, PUI
74 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
74 Industrial SPDR, XLI
74 Utilities DJ, IDU
73 Technology DJ US, IYW
73 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
72 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
72 Hong Kong Index, EWH
71 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
71 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
71 France Index, EWQ
70 Semiconductors, PSI
70 Sweden Index, EWD
69 Industrials VIPERs, VIS
69 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
69 EMU Europe Index, EZU
68 Growth S&P 500, RPG
68 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
67 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
67 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
66 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
66 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
66 Utilities SPDR, XLU
65 Short 100% S&P 500, SH
65 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
64 Technology SPDR, XLK
64 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
63 MidCap Russell, IWR
63 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
63 Aerospace & Defense, PPA
62 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
62 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
61 Bond, Corp, LQD
61 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
60 Technology MS sT, MTK
60 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
60 Dividend International, PID
59 European VIPERs, VGK
59 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
58 MidCap VIPERs, VO
58 Switzerland Index, EWL
57 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
57 EAFE Index, EFA
57 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
56 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
56 Food & Beverage, PBJ
55 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
55 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
54 Semiconductor H, SMH
54 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
54 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
53 Global 100, IOO
53 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
52 Biotech & Genome, PBE
52 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
51 Software H, SWH
51 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
51 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
50 Malaysia Index, EWM
50 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
49 Telecommunications Global, IXP
49 Belgium Index, EWK
49 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
48 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
48 Building & Construction, PKB
47 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
47 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
46 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
46 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
45 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
45 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
44 Retail H, RTH
44 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
43 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
43 Japan Index, EWJ
43 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
42 Utilities H, UTH
42 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
41 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
41 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
40 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
40 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
40 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
39 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
38 Biotechnology, IBB
38 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
37 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
37 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
37 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
36 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
36 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
35 United Kingdom Index, EWU
35 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
34 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
34 REIT Wilshire, RWR
34 Global Titans, DGT
33 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
33 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
32 Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
32 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
31 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
31 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
31 Internet H, HHH
30 South Korea Index, EWY
30 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
29 Networking, IGN
29 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
29 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
28 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
28 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
27 Software, PSJ
27 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
26 Italy Index, EWI
26 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
26 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
25 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
25 Biotech H, BBH
24 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
24 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
23 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
23 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
23 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
22 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
22 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
21 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
21 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
20 Broadband H, BDH
20 Networking, PXQ
20 Value VIPERs, VTV
19 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
19 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
18 Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
18 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
17 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
17 Insurance, PIC
17 Telecom H, TTH
16 Value MidCap iS M, JKI
16 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
15 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
15 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
14 Dividend SPDR, SDY
14 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
14 Healthcare DJ, IYH
13 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
13 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
12 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
12 Retail, PMR
11 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
11 Health Care SPDR, XLV
11 Healthcare Global, IXJ
10 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
10 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
9 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
9 Pharmaceutical H, PPH
9 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
8 Nanotech Lux, PXN
8 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
7 Value S&P 500, RPV
7 Microcap Russell, IWC
6 Hardware & Electronics, PHW
6 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
6 Bank Regional H, RKH
5 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
5 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
3 Financials VIPERs, VFH
3 Financial DJ US, IYF
2 Dividend Leaders, FDL
2 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1 Financial SPDR, XLF
1 Financial Services DJ, IYG
0 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
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Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs
As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
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Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis
The best EMAs
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Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using "Annual Relative Advantage".
Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT
(Chartered Market Technician),
is senior investment strategist at TradingEducation.com and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients’ objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing.
"Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
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Gold’s next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold’s relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal. By Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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Japanese Candlesticks tested by Robert W. Colby, CMT, in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006. “PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?” pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com Interviews
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Active Trader Interviews
Robert W. Colby, CMT
A four-page interview was published in the September 2004 issue of Active Trader, Short-Term Trading Strategies in the Financial Markets: “Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators. By Active Trader Staff.”
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Hedge Funds and Managed Futures Both Underperformed in 2006
Of 63 public futures funds professionally managed by the biggest names in the business, 18 actually lost money in 2006. The average managed futures fund gained only 2.57% in 2006, which was much less than the return on risk-free U.S. Treasury Bills. And 2006 was actually an improvement over 2005, when 56% of the funds lost money, and the average fund lost 0.26%. Most managed futures funds rely on some form of systematic trend following.
Click here for a graph of a diversified futures system simulated performance.
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For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 30 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
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For Week ended Friday, May 9, 2008, as of Friday's close
Global Markets
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Major Trend Rank
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 HEATING OIL, HO
88 NATURAL GAS, NG
87 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL
86 CORN, C
85 SOYBEAN OIL, BO
84 Commodity Tracking, DBC
83 LIVE HOGS, LH
81 Brazil Index, EWZ
80 LIQUID PROPANE, PN
79 RAPESEED, RS
78 SOYBEANS, S
77 Latin Am 40, ILF
76 Oil Services H, OIH
74 Energy SPDR, XLE
73 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM
72 Canada Index, EWC
71 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI
70 GOLD 100 CMX, GC
69 COPPER CMX H/G, HG
67 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
66 Silver Trust iS, SLV
65 Materials SPDR, XLB
64 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
63 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD
62 SWISS FRANC, SF
60 JAPANESE YEN, JY
59 Emerging Markets, EEM
58 Biotech SPDR, XBI
57 Taiwan Index, EWT
56 Mexico Index, EWW
55 Singapore Index, EWS
53 Austria Index, EWO
52 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
51 Germany Index, EWG
50 China 25 iS, FXI
49 Bond, TIPS, TIP
48 LIVE CATTLE, LC
47 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
45 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY
44 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
43 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD
42 FEEDER CATTLE, FC
41 US T-Bonds, US
40 Industrial SPDR, XLI
38 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
37 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
36 Hong Kong Index, EWH
35 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
34 France Index, EWQ
33 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
31 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI
30 Utilities SPDR, XLU
29 Technology SPDR, XLK
28 Bond, Corp, LQD
27 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
24 Semiconductor H, SMH
23 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
22 Malaysia Index, EWM
21 Belgium Index, EWK
20 Retail H, RTH
19 Japan Index, EWJ
17 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
16 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
15 BRITISH POUND, BP
14 S&P 500 INDEX, SP
13 LUMBER, LB
12 South Korea Index, EWY
10 WHEAT, W
9 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
8 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
7 Consumer D. SPDR, XLY
6 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB
5 Health Care SPDR, XLV
3 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
2 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK
1 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0 Financial SPDR, XLF
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