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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
Posted Wednesday, March 10, 2010, at 11:55 p.m. ET
Stock Market: bullish signals, signs of a strong trend.
Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector absolute price broke out above 17-month highs.
Technology Stock Sector absolute price rose above 6-week highs and remains above key moving averages.
Energy Stock Sector absolute price moved above 6-week highs.
Health Care Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 9-week lows.
Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above 17-month highs while absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs.
The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs while absolute price of MDY rose above 15-month highs.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs while absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 18-month highs.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs while absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) rose further above 7-week highs. SPX remains in bullish position above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 remains well above the 200.
NYSE Total Volume rose to confirm the price upmove. On Balance Volume for the SPY ETF rose to another new high.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE is making new highs and continues to significantly outperform the major capitalization-weighted price indexes, such as the S&P 500. The broad market is strong.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.60% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
5.58% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
0.53% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
6.39% , ZION , ZIONS
3.53% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.38% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
5.07% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
3.32% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
3.27% , DYN , DYNEGY
5.50% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
4.37% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
3.99% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
3.79% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
7.98% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.61% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
3.20% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
3.64% , SUN , SUNOCO
2.10% , MOLX , MOLEX
4.13% , KEY , KEYCORP
2.33% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
2.90% , GOOG , Google
10.59% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
2.81% , BBT , BB&T
2.58% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.25% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.83% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.93% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.38% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
2.79% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.24% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.06% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
6.23% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.03% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
2.81% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
1.63% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
2.38% , AFL , AFLAC
3.17% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
2.33% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
2.69% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
3.27% , BA , BOEING
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.93% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.79% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.54% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.41% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-1.58% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-1.22% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-1.66% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-1.22% , CB , CHUBB
-1.47% , CMI , CUMMINS
-1.23% , AES , AES
-0.69% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.14% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.96% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-2.08% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.60% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.92% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.88% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.83% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-1.33% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.14% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.62% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.76% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.26% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.85% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.03% , STT , STATE STREET
-0.26% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.74% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-0.87% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.46% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-1.00% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-0.51% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.49% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-1.01% , SYY , SYSCO
-1.18% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.13% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-0.52% , GAS , NICOR
-1.52% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.63% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.35% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-0.67% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/8/10. XLY/SPY remains in bullish position, above its rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of XLY broke out above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Price remains above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 31.95 and 33.76.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 3/9/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 16-month highs on 3/10/10. Price crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 2/16/10, remains above its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50-day is above the 200. Support 29.60, 28.15, 27.28, 26.66 and 25.20. Resistance 30.56 and 32.00.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 9-week lows on 3/10/10. XLV/SPY turned relatively unfavorable when it fell below its 200-day simple moving average on 3/8/10. Absolute price of XLV appears to be consolidating slightly above its moving averages. Support 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 32.12, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 4-week lows and fell below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 3/5/10. Absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 3/10/10 and remains above both moving averages. Support 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 22.87, and 23.05.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY ) remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. But absolute price of XLB is bullish, rising above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 30.79, 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 33.73 and 34.52.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bearish on 3/9/10 when it fell below its 50-day simple moving average. XLP/SPY remains below its 200, and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLP moved above 16-month highs on 3/5/10, and moving average analysis of price continues to indicate a bullish position. Support 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 4-month highs and above its 200-day simple moving average on 3/10/10. The 50 remains below the 200, however, reflecting a 3-year downtrend. Absolute price of XLF moved above 5-month highs on 3/10/10, and moving average analysis of price continues to indicate a bullish position. Support 15.12, 14.33, 13.95, 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 15.76 and 16.53.
Energy Stock Sector absolute price moved above
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has either been stuck between or below key moving averages since 1/12/10. In contrast, absolute price of XLE moved above 6-week highs on 3/10/10, and moving average analysis of price indicates a bullish position. Support 57.67, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/10/10 and remains bearish, below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and with the 50 below the 200. Absolute price of XLU remains neutral, stuck between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 30.06, 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish, below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. But absolute price of EEM remains bullish, above both moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish, below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. But absolute price of EFA remains bullish, above both moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 18-month highs on 3/9/10 and also is in bullish position relative to moving averages.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) has been choppy/sideways/neutral for most of the past 12 months, since March 2009, and that trend appears to be continuing. Longer term, IWF/IWD has been mostly bullish since 8/8/06.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) has been choppy/sideways/neutral most of the time over the past 12 months. Longer term, IWD/SPY has been mostly bearish since 3/22/07, and we assume that long-term trends continue--until proved otherwise.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months on 3/10/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.
The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish. In addition, absolute price of MDY rose above 15-month highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above 8-week highs on 3/10/10. Oil remains in strong position: price is above both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Support 80.16, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.
Gold nearest futures contract price broke down below 8-day lows on 3/10/10 and crossed slightly below its 50-day simple moving average. This after rising above 6-week highs on 3/3/10. Gold remains above its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50 remains comfortably above the 200. Support 1088.5, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral, between 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of GDX also is neutral. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above its 50-day simple moving average on 3/5/10 but remains below its 200-day simple moving average. The 50 is below the 200. Mixed indications from the Silver/Gold Ratio implies some uncertainty about prospects for the world economy.
Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above 5-week highs intraday on 3/1/10. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1505, 3.034, 2.811, 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.4665, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest (March) futures contract price broke down below 10-day lows on 3/10/10. The Bond remains above its 50-day simple moving average, below its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50 remains below the 200, reflecting the downtrend since the top at 143.00 set on 12/18/08. Support 115.24, 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.02, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose further above key moving averages on 3/9/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK rose further above 6-week highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) and absolute price of TIP both remain neutral, stuck between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Investors appear unconcerned about inflation.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price has been correcting and consolidating gains at a high level since peaking on 2/19/10. USD moved above 7-month highs on 2/19/10 and remains in strong position: the 50-day simple moving average crossed above the 200-day simple moving average on 2/16/10, price crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 12/8/09, and price crossed above its 200-day simple moving average on 1/27/10. Support 79.835, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 81.43, 81.795 and 83.335.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 44.9% Bulls versus 23.6% Bears as of 3/10/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.90, up from 1.85 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still well below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index fell to a 6-week low of 17.23 on 3/5/10 and is near the low end of its 2010 range of 16.86 to 29.22. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to a 7-week low of 17.82 on 3/5/10 and is near the lower end of its 2010 range of 17.73 to 29.12. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 3/9/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 1/11/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 14 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 signal reversed the previous signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) rose further above 7-week highs on 3/10/10. SPX remains in bullish position above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 remains well above the 200. Support 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1150.45 and 1158.76.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, of 9/25/2008
1158.76, EW ABC measured move target
1150.45, high of 1/19/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.99% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
2.22% Internet B2B H, BHH
2.09% Semiconductor H, SMH
1.95% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.73% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.48% Semiconductors, PSI
1.48% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.36% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
1.33% Bank Regional H, RKH
1.25% Belgium Index, EWK
1.23% Technology MS sT, MTK
1.19% Germany Index, EWG
1.17% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.17% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
1.11% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.09% Value S&P 500, RPV
1.07% Spain Index, EWP
1.07% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.06% Italy Index, EWI
1.03% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.02% Austria Index, EWO
0.99% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.99% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
0.98% Internet H, HHH
0.98% Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.98% Singapore Index, EWS
0.97% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.97% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
0.96% Sweden Index, EWD
0.95% Networking, IGN
0.94% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.94% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.94% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.93% European VIPERs, VGK
0.93% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
0.93% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.92% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.90% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.89% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.89% France Index, EWQ
0.89% Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.89% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.88% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.88% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
0.87% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
0.87% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.87% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
0.86% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
0.86% South Korea Index, EWY
0.86% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.86% Technology Global, IXN
0.85% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.85% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.85% MidCap VIPERs, VO
0.85% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.84% Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.84% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.83% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.83% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.82% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.82% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.82% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.81% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.81% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.81% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.81% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.77% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
0.76% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.76% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
0.75% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.75% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.74% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.74% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.74% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.73% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.73% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.72% Energy DJ, IYE
0.71% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.71% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.70% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.70% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.69% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.69% Global 100, IOO
0.69% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.69% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.68% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.68% Building & Construction, PKB
0.67% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.67% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.66% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
0.65% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.65% Energy Global, IXC
0.65% Software, IGV
0.65% Technology GS, IGM
0.63% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.63% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.63% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.62% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.62% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.61% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
0.61% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
0.61% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.61% Insurance, PIC
0.60% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.57% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
0.55% Dividend International, PID
0.54% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.54% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.53% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.53% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.53% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.53% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.52% Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.51% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.51% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.51% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.50% Software H, SWH
0.50% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.50% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.49% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.49% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.48% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.48% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
0.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.47% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.47% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.46% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.45% Short 200% US T Bond, TBT
0.45% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.45% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
0.45% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.44% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.44% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
0.43% Global Titans, DGT
0.43% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% EAFE Index, EFA
0.41% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.39% Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.39% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.39% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.39% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.38% Utilities H, UTH
0.37% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.37% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.37% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
0.36% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
0.34% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.34% Australia Index, EWA
0.34% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
0.32% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.31% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.31% South Africa Index, EZA
0.30% Oil Services H, OIH
0.30% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.29% Short 200% Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.29% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.29% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.29% Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.29% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.28% Software, PSJ
0.28% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.28% Mexico Index, EWW
0.27% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.27% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.26% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.26% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.25% Utilities DJ, IDU
0.24% China 25 iS, FXI
0.24% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
0.23% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.21% Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.21% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.21% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.20% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.19% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.19% Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.18% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.17% Canada Index, EWC
0.17% Biotech H, BBH
0.16% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.14% Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.13% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.09% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.09% Utilities, PUI
0.08% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
0.06% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.06% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.05% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.05% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.05% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.02% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
0.02% Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.01% Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.00% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.01% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-0.02% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Retail, PMR
-0.06% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.07% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.07% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.11% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.12% Water Resources, PHO
-0.13% Retail H, RTH
-0.15% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.15% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.17% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.18% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-0.21% Telecom H, TTH
-0.22% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.26% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.26% Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.32% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-0.41% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.45% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.69% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.75% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.80% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.86% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.14% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.14% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.52% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.54% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.63% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
Please see my top 10 ETF relative strength ranks, below. This list is updated every weekend. My top 10 ETFs outperformed the S&P 500 very significantly since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk.
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 5, 2010.
4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 109 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
99 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
98 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
97 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
97 Value S&P 500, RPV
96 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
96 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 5, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 235 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 235 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, ETFs ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
99 Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
98 Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
97 Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
97 Value S&P 500, RPV
96 Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
96 Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
95 Biotech & Genome, PBE
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
94 Software, PSJ
94 Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
93 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
93 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
92 Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
92 Internet H, HHH
91 Growth S&P 500, RPG
91 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
91 SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
90 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
90 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
89 Retail, PMR
89 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
89 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
88 Mexico Index, EWW
88 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
87 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
87 Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
86 Value MidCap iS M, JKI
86 MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
86 MidCap VIPERs, VO
85 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
85 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
84 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
83 Australia Index, EWA
83 Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
83 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
82 Microcap Russell, IWC
82 MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
81 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
81 MidCap Russell, IWR
80 Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
80 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
80 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
79 Pharmaceuticals, PJP
79 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
78 Sweden Index, EWD
78 Latin Am 40, ILF
77 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
77 Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
77 Technology MS sT, MTK
76 Aerospace & Defense, PPA
76 REIT Wilshire, RWR
75 Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
75 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
74 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
74 South Korea Index, EWY
74 South Africa Index, EZA
73 Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
73 Industrial SPDR, XLI
72 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
72 Brazil Index, EWZ
71 Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
71 Canada Index, EWC
71 Internet B2B H, BHH
70 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
70 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
69 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
69 SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
69 Technology DJ US, IYW
68 Malaysia Index, EWM
68 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
67 Technology GS, IGM
67 Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
66 Internet Architecture H, IAH
66 Biotech SPDR, XBI
66 Software, IGV
65 Industrials VIPERs, VIS
65 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
64 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
64 OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
63 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
63 Retail H, RTH
63 Growth Large Cap, ELG
62 Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
62 Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
61 Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
61 IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
60 Semiconductors, PSI
60 Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
60 Networking, IGN
59 Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
59 Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
58 Materials VIPERs, VAW
58 Emerging Markets, EEM
57 Financial Preferred, PGF
57 Growth VIPERs, VUG
57 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
56 Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
56 Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
55 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
55 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
54 Healthcare DJ, IYH
54 Dividend SPDR, SDY
54 Technology Global, IXN
53 Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
53 Insurance, PIC
52 Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
52 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
51 Silver Trust iS, SLV
51 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
51 Food & Beverage, PBJ
50 Switzerland Index, EWL
50 LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
49 Oil Services H, OIH
49 LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
49 Health Care SPDR, XLV
48 LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
48 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
47 Health Care VIPERs, VHT
47 Semiconductor H, SMH
46 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
46 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
46 Technology SPDR, XLK
45 Materials SPDR, XLB
45 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
44 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
44 Software H, SWH
43 Singapore Index, EWS
43 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
43 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
42 Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
42 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
41 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
41 LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
40 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
40 Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
40 Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
39 Water Resources, PHO
39 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
38 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
38 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
37 Healthcare Global, IXJ
37 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
37 Hong Kong Index, EWH
36 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
36 LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
35 Value VIPERs, VTV
35 Biotech H, BBH
34 LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
34 Dividend International, PID
34 Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
33 Netherlands Index, EWN
33 Bank Regional H, RKH
32 Financials VIPERs, VFH
32 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
31 Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
31 Financial DJ US, IYF
31 Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
30 Taiwan Index, EWT
30 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
29 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
29 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
29 Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
28 LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
28 Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
27 Energy SPDR, XLE
27 Financial SPDR, XLF
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Oil & Gas, PXJ
26 Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
25 Dividend Leaders, FDL
25 Financial Services DJ, IYG
24 Global 100, IOO
24 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
23 EAFE Index, EFA
23 United Kingdom Index, EWU
23 Global Titans, DGT
22 China 25 iS, FXI
22 Belgium Index, EWK
21 Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
21 Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
20 Building & Construction, PKB
20 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
20 Energy DJ, IYE
19 Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
19 Japan Index, EWJ
18 Energy Global, IXC
18 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
17 Pharmaceutical H, PPH
17 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
16 Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
16 France Index, EWQ
15 Bond, Corp, LQD
15 Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
14 Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
14 Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
14 European VIPERs, VGK
13 Utilities DJ, IDU
13 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
12 Nanotech Lux, PXN
12 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
11 Bond, TIPS, TIP
11 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Germany Index, EWG
10 Commodity Tracking, DBC
10 EMU Europe Index, EZU
9 Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
9 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
9 Utilities, PUI
8 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
8 Telecommunications Global, IXP
7 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
7 Utilities H, UTH
6 Spain Index, EWP
6 Short 200% US T Bond, TBT
6 Italy Index, EWI
5 Telecom H, TTH
5 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
4 Austria Index, EWO
4 Short 200% Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3 Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
3 Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2 Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2 Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1 Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1 Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0 Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0 Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs
As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11
2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11
2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77
3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
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Money Management Rules:
At times of sudden rapid change it is particularly important to apply sound trading tactics.
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis
The best EMAs
(Exponential Moving Averages)
Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
"Annual Relative Advantage".
Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is senior investment strategist at TraderPlanet.com, TradingEducation.com, and RobertWColby.com. He is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives, whether short-term trading, long-term investing, stocks, or commodities. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Colby worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct instructor at New York University and NewYork Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on investment analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of years. Mr. Colby has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (www.mtaeducationalfoundation.org/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools.
"Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
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--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.
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Past daily update archives are online. Please click here, scroll to the bottom of the linked page,
and click on any past date.
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
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Hedge Funds Underperformed in 2009
According to Reuters, hedge funds gained less than 20% in 2009, on average, thereby lagging the 24% gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. In 2008, clients reacted to the industry's worst-ever losses by pulling out a record $155 billion.
Click here for a graph of a diversified futures system simulated performance.
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For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 5, 2010.
Global Markets
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength, I ranked 85 Global Markets (commodity futures and exchange traded funds representing major sectors, groups, and country indexes) as of the posting date, above. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609.
Research studies suggest that Global Markets ranked in the top quintile (highest fifth) of the list (with a rank of 80 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead. Conversely, Global Markets ranked in the bottom quintile (lowest fifth), below 20, may have a greater probability of underperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 80, Buy
79 to 60, Hold
59 to 40, Neutral, Market Perform
39 to 20, Avoid
19 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Major Trend Rank
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
100 LUMBER, LB
99 COPPER CMX H/G, HG
97 LIVE HOGS, LH
96 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
95 FROZEN PORK BELLIES, PB
93 Mexico Index, EWW
92 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
91 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
89 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
88 Latin Am 40, ILF
87 NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
86 South Korea Index, EWY
84 Industrial SPDR, XLI
83 Brazil Index, EWZ
82 Canada Index, EWC
80 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
79 CRUDE LIGHT OIL, CL
78 FTSE 100 INDEX, FFI
76 Malaysia Index, EWM
75 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
74 Biotech SPDR, XBI
72 Retail H, RTH
71 GOLD 100 CMX, GC
70 Emerging Markets, EEM
68 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
67 SILVER 5000 CMX, SI
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
64 Silver Trust iS, SLV
63 Oil Services H, OIH
62 Health Care SPDR, XLV
61 Semiconductor H, SMH
59 Technology SPDR, XLK
58 Materials SPDR, XLB
57 Singapore Index, EWS
55 HEATING OIL, HO
54 S&P 500 SPDRs, SPY
53 S&P 500 INDEX, SP
51 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
50 LIVE CATTLE, LC
49 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
47 Hong Kong Index, EWH
46 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
45 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AD
43 Taiwan Index, EWT
42 Energy SPDR, XLE
41 Financial SPDR, XLF
39 CANADIAN DOLLAR, CD
38 SOYBEAN OIL, BO
37 EAFE Index, EFA
36 FEEDER CATTLE, FC
34 China 25 iS, FXI
33 Belgium Index, EWK
32 NIKKEI STOCK INDEX, NK
30 Japan Index, EWJ
29 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
28 France Index, EWQ
26 JAPANESE YEN, JY
25 Bond, Corp, LQD
24 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
22 Bond, TIPS, TIP
21 Utilities SPDR, XLU
20 T NOTES COM. 10-Y, TY
18 Germany Index, EWG
17 Commodity Tracking, DBC
16 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
14 US T-Bonds, US
13 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
12 SWISS FRANC, SF
11 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
9 CORN, C
8 Austria Index, EWO
7 BRITISH POUND, BP
5 NATURAL GAS, NG
4 SOYBEANS, S
3 RAPESEED, RS
1 WHEAT, W
0 SOYBEAN MEAL, SM