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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
January 5, 2026
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Minor price pullbacks won’t stop bullish major trends for global equities.
Long-term trends for the global stock markets remain overwhelmingly bullish. 33 of our 38 major market ETFs are in objectively strong positions, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) above the 200-day SMA. Major long-term trends produce very big price moves that can last for years and are highly significant for all traders and investors.
Despite a 5-day a minor price pullback, U.S. Equities remain in bullish major trends.
- Momentum: Short-term momentum for the broad U.S. stock market turned down moderately to the neutral zone, suggesting no more than a minor price pullback in a bull market.
- Breadth: Most of the S&P 500 stocks, 59%, are still above their trailing 50-day Simple Moving Averages. New Highs outnumber New Lows. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline made new all-time high on 12/24/2025.
- Dow Theory: The Dow Theory again confirmed a Major Bull Market on 12/24/2025 as both the Industrial Average and the Transportation Average rose to higher highs. The benchmark S&P 500 index also rose to new all-time price high on 12/24/2025, reconfirming its bullish leadership.
- Seasonal tendencies remain strongly bullish.
- Sentiment is neutral.
International Equities rose to higher highs on Friday, signaling fresh bullish momentum.
- Emerging Markets (EEM) and EAFE Developed Markets (EFA) prices both rose to new highs on Friday and remain bullish.
- China stocks ETF (FXI) broke out above its December high and is now systematically bullish.
Metals also experienced minor price pullbacks last week but remain bullish:
- Silver (SLV)
- Gold Miners (GDX)
- Gold (GLD)
- Copper (CPER)
Continue to avoid underperforming ETFs in bearish trends:
- Bitcoin (IBIT)
- Consumer Staples (XLP)
- Crude Oil (USO)
- Agriculture (DBA)
- Real Estate (XLRE)
Proceed cautiously with ETFs demonstrating persistent, lagging short-term price momentum:
- U.S. bond ETFs (TLT, TIP, IEF, and AGG)
- U.S. Dollar (UUP)
- Utilities sector (XLU)
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See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here) for our complete analysis of global markets and specific investment rankings. A strategy emphasizing both capital preservation and return on investment appears most rational and prudent at this time. Every day, we measure and weigh objective technical and quantitative data in order to judge the Reward/Risk probabilities of trend continuation or reversal. Our goal is to protect your assets from major risks while capitalizing on an improving investment outlook. We always put our clients’ best interests first. Consider exploring our professional fiduciary asset management services to protect and grow your wealth. We are happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer your questions. For a free consultation, contact |
11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
My book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac. This book also received an excellent review in Futures Magazine.
My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
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Preview Colby's Book:
The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators.
Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis
Update on EMA Crossover Signals
Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
"Annual Relative Advantage".
Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which is the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the CMT Association (https://cmtassociation.org/) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation (https://www.taeducation.org/about/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "The CMT Association is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States."
Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
TradingMarkets.com interviewed
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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